美联储降息预期助力A股更上层楼

Market Performance Review - A-shares continued to rise strongly, reaching new highs, with major indices all increasing, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 which surged by 8.59% on Friday and 13.31% for the week, significantly outperforming other indices [3][12] - The market style saw a significant reversal, with cyclical stocks rebounding strongly while consumer stocks lagged behind, contrasting with the previous week [12] - Large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks this week, reversing last week's trend, with core assets like the Moutai index and the Ning combination also seeing substantial gains, up 4.51% and 3.71% respectively [12] Industry Insights - The TMT sector continued to lead the market, with significant gains in the communication (10.84%), electronics (8.95%), and computer (7.93%) sectors, driven by the production halt of Nvidia's H20 chips and optimistic expectations for domestic AI applications and computing power [4][13] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is anticipated to further boost A-shares, influencing both short-term capital flows and long-term fundamental changes [4][30] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts is likely to enhance A-share performance through improved capital flows and a more attractive investment environment for international capital [4][30] - Long-term fundamental changes include a potential recovery in consumer and investment demand globally, alleviating export pressures, and a possible domestic rate cut that could reverse current deleveraging trends [4][31] - The report emphasizes that individual stock alpha logic is preferred over industry beta logic, highlighting opportunities for valuation recovery in TMT growth sectors, particularly in AI applications and computing power [5][31]