冠通研究：弱势整理

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Urea is currently in a weak consolidation phase with no immediate market drivers The previous export positive factors have been digested Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent Indian tender price exceeds market expectations In the short - term, consider short - selling on rebounds Later, autumn fertilizer preparation and off - season storage will support the market, and there is also potential for Northeast fertilizer preparation to start, so the downside space is relatively limited [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures and spot markets of urea are both weak After upstream factories cut prices to attract orders, the market trading atmosphere did not improve significantly The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1640 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][7] - Fundamentally, there is no significant fluctuation The daily production is maintained at around 190,000 tons This week, Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Lu'an have maintenance plans, and the weekly output is expected to decrease compared to last week [1] - On the demand side, industrial demand has some resilience The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has reached a high level in the same period of history, with limited room for further increase Recently, affected by environmental protection restrictions for the military parade, compound fertilizer factories have limited production, and the operating load has slightly decreased [1] - The finished product inventory has been at a high level in the past five years for the past two months It is not yet the high - demand period for autumn fertilizers, so there is no pressure for centralized fertilizer preparation Other industrial demands are also affected by environmental protection restrictions and have reduced or stopped production [1] - Urea inventory is accumulating and is currently at a high level in the past five years A large amount of inventory restricts the upward space of the market, and there is a large amount of marketable supply [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1741 yuan/ton, fluctuated downward during the day, and finally closed at 1737 yuan/ton, down 0.52% The trading volume was 219,820 lots, a decrease of 3120 lots [2] - In the top twenty positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 871 lots, and short positions decreased by 3230 lots Among them, Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 1232 lots, Galaxy Futures' net long positions increased by 786 lots; CITIC Futures' net short positions decreased by 2257 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' net short positions decreased by 1516 lots [2] - On August 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5123, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - Spot: The futures and spot markets are both weak After upstream factories cut prices to attract orders, the market trading atmosphere did not improve significantly The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1640 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][7] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation is stable today, while the futures closing price has decreased Based on the Henan region, the basis has strengthened compared to the previous trading day The basis of the January contract is - 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton [10] - Supply data: On August 26, 2025, the national daily urea production was 194,700 tons, unchanged from yesterday The operating rate was 82.55% [12]