2025年第四季度A股策略：权益市场震荡上行，关注高质量发展和美丽中国方向

Group 1 - The report indicates that the global investment opportunities in the second half of 2025 are driven by the U.S. "Big and Beautiful Act," which raises the debt ceiling and reduces corporate taxes, leading to new highs in the U.S. stock market. This act, along with the implementation of reciprocal tariff policies, is expected to indirectly benefit Chinese assets and the A-share market [1][14][16] - The "GENIUS Act" is anticipated to transform the global monetary system through the development of stablecoins, which will have far-reaching implications for the financial landscape [1][14][31] - The report highlights that the long-term economic outlook is characterized by a decline in global GDP growth, with the U.S.-China conflict being a significant factor, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to benefit from a focus on low-yield and high-valuation stocks [1][16] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the external pressures on China's economic development primarily stem from the U.S. reciprocal tariff policies, which have led to a significant decline in the competitiveness of Chinese goods in the U.S. market [3][41][42] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" are identified as key drivers for capital market directions, focusing on high-quality development and the "Beautiful China" initiative [4][45][47] - The report outlines that the high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will emphasize innovation-driven growth, green transformation, and sustainable development, which are crucial for the future of various industries [5][48][49]