基础化工行业周报：韩国或将削减石脑油产能，草甘膦价格再度上涨-20250826

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - Supply-side structural optimization is expected, with a focus on selecting elastic and advantageous sectors. Domestic policies frequently mention supply-side requirements, while rising raw material costs and capacity shocks in Asia have led to shutdowns and capacity exits among European and American chemical companies. In the short term, geopolitical tensions increase uncertainty in overseas chemical supply, but in the long term, China's chemical industry chain has a clear competitive advantage, rapidly filling gaps in the international supply chain and potentially reshaping the global chemical industry landscape [4][14] Summary by Sections Industry News and Events - South Korea plans to cut 25% of its naphtha cracking capacity, shifting towards higher value-added products. This restructuring involves reducing excess capacity and improving financial health while minimizing economic and employment impacts. The government will support proactive industry measures with relaxed regulations and fiscal policies [5][12] - Glyphosate prices are rising again, with domestic factory inventory significantly decreasing. As of August 24, 2025, the inventory was 27,800 tons, down 60.34% year-on-year and 2.46% month-on-month. The market anticipates a slight price increase due to strong domestic demand and export orders [6][13] Chemical Sector Performance - For the week of August 18-22, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 4.18%, while the Shenwan Oil and Petrochemical Index increased by 2.92%, underperforming the market by 1.26 percentage points. The Shenwan Basic Chemical Index rose by 2.86%, also underperforming the market by 1.32 percentage points [16][17] - The top five performing sub-sectors included Other Rubber Products (8.53%), Polyurethane (6.34%), Titanium Dioxide (5.69%), Other Petrochemicals (5.05%), and Fluorochemicals (4.79%) [17] Key Product Price Trends - The top price increases for the week included Light Soda Ash (8.25%), Soft Foam Polyether (6.04%), Heavy Soda Ash (5.97%), TDI (4.99%), and Caustic Soda (4.50%). Conversely, the largest price drops were seen in Polytetrafluoroethylene (-26.19%), Methyl Acrylate (-7.16%), and Vitamin E (-7.14%) [27][28] - The price spread for key products showed significant increases for products like Adipic Acid-Pure Benzene (16.78%) and Propylene Oxide-0.8*Propylene (15.60%) [30][31] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with significant supply-side reform potential, such as organic silicon, membrane materials, chlorine-alkali, and dyes. Key companies to watch include Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, and Zhejiang Longsheng [4][14] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, companies like Yangnong Chemical and Guangxin Co. are highlighted for their relative advantages [14][15]