Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][16]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 3.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 118 million yuan, up 63.27% year-on-year [2][3]. - The growth is driven by the dual engines of "cross-border e-commerce and packaging," with the cross-border e-commerce segment achieving revenue of 2.116 billion yuan, a 52.91% increase, and net profit of 55 million yuan, up 97.67% [2][3]. - The company has a strong market position in the Chinese paper-based fast-moving consumer goods packaging sector, benefiting from the rapid growth of instant retail, which has led to a surge in demand for food-grade packaging [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company expects revenue of 6.695 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.5%. However, a decline of 17.4% is projected for 2024 [1][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 345 million yuan in 2023, with a significant increase of 87.6% year-on-year, followed by a decline of 47.3% in 2024 [1][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.4% in 2023, decreasing to 8.4% in 2024, and gradually recovering to 12.9% by 2027 [1][9]. Dividend and Globalization Strategy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.80 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 80 million yuan, emphasizing its commitment to shareholder returns [3]. - The recent listing of H-shares in Hong Kong is expected to enhance the company's global strategy, facilitating the expansion of its cross-border e-commerce and packaging businesses [3].
吉宏股份(002803):25H1业绩超预期,“跨境电商+包装”双轮驱动增长