CSI Solar(SH:688472) Great Wall Securities·2025-08-26 11:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company has a strong order book in the overseas energy storage market, which supports its profit margins. The energy storage business achieved a shipment of approximately 3.1 GWh in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.23% [2]. - The company prioritizes profit in its photovoltaic business, limiting production to maintain prices. The shipment of photovoltaic modules was 14.8 GW, remaining stable year-on-year, contributing approximately 143.62 billion yuan in revenue [3]. - The report adjusts the company's revenue forecast for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 416.74 billion yuan, 452.7 billion yuan, and 525.75 billion yuan, with net profits of 19.08 billion yuan, 26.08 billion yuan, and 31.97 billion yuan respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 47,536 million yuan in 2022, with a projected revenue of 51,310 million yuan in 2023, followed by a decline to 41,674 million yuan in 2024, and a recovery to 45,270 million yuan in 2025 [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2,157 million yuan in 2022, expected to rise to 2,903 million yuan in 2023, but forecasted to drop to 1,908 million yuan in 2024 before increasing to 2,608 million yuan in 2025 [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 18.3% in 2022 to 8.4% in 2024, before recovering to 10.3% in 2025 [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has signed contracts worth 30 billion USD in its energy storage segment, with significant projects in the Americas, Australia, and Europe [2]. - The company is actively responding to market conditions by adjusting its production and shipment strategies to maintain a balance between scale and profitability [3].