银河期货粕类日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall pressure in the soybean complex market persists, and the price center of the soybean complex is expected to move downward. The domestic soybean meal market has many disturbing factors and an unclear future direction, but there is support at the bottom. The rapeseed meal market is likely to oscillate, with the inter - monthly spread of rapeseed meal potentially strengthening, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal expected to oscillate at a low level. [5][9] - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract on dips, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options. [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures rebounded slightly. The crop inspection results were mixed, and the rebound of US soybean oil also supported the market. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures declined. The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal continued to decline, while that of rapeseed meal oscillated. [4] 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 International Market - The old - crop balance sheet of US soybeans is bullish, with lower ending stocks. The new - crop supply is tightened due to a significant reduction in planted area. The new - crop cumulative exports are slow, and the bullishness of the new - crop stock - to - use ratio is limited. [5] - The supply - demand of South American old - crop soybeans is relatively loose, with an expected increase in production and ending stocks or exports. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but the high price is due to optimistic export expectations. [5] - The international soybean meal supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase in soybean crushing in major producing areas and only a slight increase in imports by major importing countries. [5] 3.2.2 Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is loose, with high oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and high inventory. The rapeseed meal demand is weakening, the oil - mill operating rate is decreasing, and the supply pressure still exists. [7] 3.3 Macroeconomics - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market is worried about supply uncertainty. Although the overall international trade uncertainty remains high, the macro - level disturbances are decreasing. [8] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The decline of the domestic soybean meal futures is mainly due to the improvement of crushing margins. There is support at the bottom due to unclear future supply. The rapeseed meal market volatility has decreased, and the market focuses on domestic supply - demand. The demand is weak, but there will be bullish factors in the medium - term. [9] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Recommend going long on the 05 contract on dips. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM05 spread. - Options: Buy call options. [10]