Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a black metal research report from the Commodity Research Institute, dated August 26, 2025 [1][2] - The researcher is Zhou Tao, with a futures practice certificate number F03134259 and an investment consulting certificate number Z0021009 [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF主力合约 closed at 5656, down 24 for the day and 22 for the week, with a trading volume of 158,229 (down 42,351) and an open interest of 224,602 (down 4,847) [4] - SM主力合约 closed at 5862, down 36 for the day and 52 for the week, with a trading volume of 165,527 (down 61,753) and an open interest of 299,744 (down 683) [4] Spot - For silicon iron, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5420, up 50 for the day and down 80 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5450, up 70 for the day and down 50 for the week; in Qinghai, it was 5400, unchanged for the day and down 100 for the week; in Jiangsu, it was 5600, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5880, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week [4] - For silicon - manganese, silicon manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5750, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5620, unchanged for the day and down 210 for the week; in Guangxi, it was 5780, unchanged for the day and down 90 for the week; in Jiangsu, it was 5800, unchanged for the day and down 100 for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5700, unchanged for the day and down 100 for the week [4] Basis/Spread - For silicon iron, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 236, up 74 for the day and down 58 for the week; the Ningxia - main contract basis was - 206, up 94 for the day and down 28 for the week; the Qinghai - main contract basis was - 256, up 24 for the day and down 78 for the week; the Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 180, down 50 for the day and up 30 for the week; the SF - SM spread was - 206, up 12 for the day and up 30 for the week [4] - For silicon - manganese, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 112, up 36 for the day and up 2 for the week; the Ningxia - main contract basis was - 242, up 36 for the day and down 158 for the week; the Guangxi - main contract basis was - 82, up 36 for the day and down 38 for the week; the Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 30, unchanged for the day and down 40 for the week [4] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, Australian lump was priced at 40.5, unchanged for the day and the week; South African semi - carbonate was 34, unchanged for the day and down 0.7 for the week; Gabon lump was 39.5, unchanged for the day and down 0.5 for the week [4] - For blue charcoal small pieces, in Shaanxi, it was 650, unchanged for the day and up 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 685, unchanged for the day and the week; in Inner Mongolia, it was 630, unchanged for the day and the week [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - On August 26, ferroalloy futures prices declined slightly. The silicon iron main contract closed at 5656, down 0.42%, with an open interest decrease of 4847 lots; the manganese silicon main contract closed at 5862, down 0.61%, with an open interest decrease of 683 lots [8] - For silicon iron, on the 26th, spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, rising 50 - 70 yuan/ton in some regions. On the supply side, last week's output growth slowed down. On the demand side, sample steel output remained high, supporting raw material demand. The sharp decline in coking coal futures dragged down the overall black metal, but silicon iron had adjusted earlier. Now the futures price is close to the cost in some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it will mainly fluctuate at the bottom recently [8] - For manganese silicon, on the 26th, both manganese ore and manganese silicon spot prices were stable. On the supply side, the output growth of alloy plants also slowed down last week. On the demand side, the sample apparent demand for rebar increased slightly, not showing a downward trend yet. On the cost side, manganese ore port spot prices were stable, supporting manganese silicon. The sharp decline in coking coal futures on the 26th dragged down the overall black metal, but the high - premium risk of manganese silicon at the current price has been largely released, so it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8] - Unilateral: Futures prices are close to the cost in some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released. It will mainly fluctuate at the bottom recently [9] - Arbitrage: Gradually take profit on cash - and - carry arbitrage [9] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [9] Important Information - On the 26th, the price of semi - carbonate Mn36.5% at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump Mn46% was 39.8 yuan/ton degree, and Australian lump Mn46% was 42 yuan/ton degree [10] - Rwood Resources FZE announced the CIF offer price of Ivorian manganese ore for shipments to China before September 20, 2025, with a typical Mn content of 34 - 35% at 4.3 US dollars/ton degree [10] Group 4: Related Attachments Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, in Qinghai, the production cost was 5457 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 157 yuan/ton; in Gansu, the production cost was 5609 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 309 yuan/ton [20] - For silicon manganese, in Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5831 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 81 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5939 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 339 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, the production cost was 6424 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 624 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, the production cost was 6168 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 418 yuan/ton [25] Electricity Price - Ferroalloy electricity prices in different regions: in Gansu, it was 0.4 yuan/kWh today; in Guangxi, 0.515 yuan/kWh; in Guizhou, 0.475 yuan/kWh; in Hunan, 0.5 yuan/kWh; in Inner Mongolia, 0.42 yuan/kWh; in Ningxia, 0.38 yuan/kWh; in Qinghai, 0.375 yuan/kWh; in Shanxi, 0.51 yuan/kWh; in Shaanxi, 0.425 yuan/kWh; in Sichuan, 0.435 yuan/kWh; in Yunnan, 0.37 yuan/kWh [19]
银河期货铁合金日报-20250826
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-26 11:30