Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - High premiums are usually driven by factors such as supply - demand mismatches, quota restrictions, exchange - rate expectations, or policy limitations. Since Trump took office, his changing tariff policies have overshadowed other factors. After China's exchange - rate reform and policy transition, the large - scale fluctuations in the premiums of non - ferrous sector commodities caused by exchange - rate and "financing copper" issues may decrease in the future. Current premium fluctuations are mainly due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic - foreign supply - demand mismatches. Trump's changing policies may keep the premiums of New York market commodities high, which is not conducive to the outflow of Comex market inventory, and the short - term pressure on copper prices from the return of Comex copper inventory may not occur immediately [5]. - For gold, due to its strategic importance and role in the financial market, the state may introduce policies on gold purchases or quotas in the future, which may cause fluctuations in the domestic - foreign gold premium and make cross - market arbitrage difficult [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Background - Since Trump took office, his changing tariff policies have led to continuous premiums in the prices of non - ferrous metals and precious metals in the New York market. Although the expected 50% tariff on refined copper did not materialize, the Comex copper premium dropped significantly. The abnormal changes in the domestic - foreign premium have occurred frequently in the past, and this report summarizes the background and market sentiment of previous abnormal domestic premiums and provides views on future premium fluctuations [12]. Past 20 - year Premium Abnormalities Review Sub - prime Crisis Forced Adjustment of China's Gold Import Quota Policy - In 2008, the international gold price first reached a peak of $1000 per ounce in March and then dropped to $680 in October due to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. With the implementation of the Fed's quantitative easing policy, the gold price rebounded to over $1200 in 2009. In China, due to inflation and limited investment channels, the demand for physical gold soared. The central bank increased its gold reserves from 600 tons to 1054 tons, strengthening market bullish expectations. However, due to strict import quota management, only a few state - owned commercial banks could import gold, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance and a significant difference between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the London market. In the first half of 2009, the domestic market changed from a discount to a premium, and the premium returned to a reasonable range in the second half of the year after the import quota was gradually relaxed [13][14]. International Gold Price Fluctuations from 2011 to 2013 Led to a Rise in Domestic Premium - From 2011 to 2013, the international gold price reached a high in 2011 and then dropped sharply in 2013, and the domestic gold price premium increased abnormally. In August 2011, due to the European and American debt crises and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the international gold price soared, while the domestic supply could not meet the sudden increase in demand due to quota management, capital account restrictions, and exchange - rate expectations, resulting in a premium of about 20 - 30 yuan per gram. In early 2012, during the Chinese New Year gold consumption season, the domestic supply - demand contradiction was prominent, and the premium also reached over 20 yuan per gram. In 2013, the international gold price dropped sharply due to the Cyprus debt crisis and the Fed's plan to reduce bond purchases. Chinese consumers launched a gold - buying spree, and the central bank tightened the import channels, resulting in a premium of over 30 yuan per gram at the peak [24][25][26]. The "Financing Copper" Effect Pushed up the Domestic Copper Premium around the 8.11 Exchange - rate Reform - Around the 8.11 exchange - rate reform in 2015, the domestic copper premium increased significantly. The premium logic of the copper market is more complex, involving the dual game of "financing demand" and "depreciation arbitrage". The expectation of RMB depreciation led enterprises to conduct cross - border arbitrage through copper trade, causing the bonded - area copper inventory to exceed 600,000 tons and the domestic copper price to have a premium of up to 1,700 yuan per ton compared with the LME price. In early 2016, the supply - side reform led to expectations of copper smelter production cuts, further expanding the premium. The regulatory authorities took measures in the third quarter of 2016 to reduce the price difference, and the domestic premium peak in 2016 was about 2,000 yuan per ton [36]. The COVID - 19 Pandemic Caused Significant Premiums in Domestic Copper and Silver - In 2020, due to the different economic recovery paces between China and the rest of the world during the COVID - 19 pandemic, there were significant price premiums in the domestic silver and copper markets. The domestic silver price premium exceeded 200 yuan per kilogram in the second quarter, and the copper price premium reached 1,500 yuan per ton in May. The silver premium was driven by the booming photovoltaic industry, blocked import channels, and increased investment demand. The copper premium was due to China's infrastructure stimulus plan, a sharp decrease in scrap copper imports, and exchange - rate - related hedging behavior. The regulatory authorities took measures such as increasing import quotas and releasing state - reserve copper, and by the fourth quarter of 2020, the premiums returned to normal levels [41][42][43]. The Adjustment of the Gold Import Quota Led to a Rise in the Domestic Premium from 2023 to 2024 - From 2023 to 2024, the domestic - foreign gold price difference was inverted due to the central bank's quota control on gold imports. Geopolitical risks and the downturn in the domestic real estate market increased investors' demand for gold. Some enterprises and investors found ways to bypass the quota policy through financial innovation, which weakened the policy's effectiveness and increased the complexity and volatility of the domestic gold pricing system. As the bank's gold import quota was gradually relaxed, the premium gradually returned [47]. Summary - High premiums are usually driven by factors such as supply - demand mismatches, quota restrictions, exchange - rate expectations, or policy limitations. After Trump took office, his tariff policies overshadowed other factors. After China's exchange - rate reform and policy transition, the large - scale fluctuations in the premiums of non - ferrous sector commodities caused by exchange - rate and "financing copper" issues may decrease in the future. Current premium fluctuations are mainly due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic - foreign supply - demand mismatches. Trump's changing policies may keep the premiums of New York market commodities high, which is not conducive to the outflow of Comex market inventory, and the short - term pressure on copper prices from the return of Comex copper inventory may not occur immediately. For gold, the state may introduce policies on gold purchases or quotas in the future, which may cause fluctuations in the domestic - foreign gold premium and make cross - market arbitrage difficult [51].
贵金属与铜内外盘异常溢价成因回顾及展望
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-26 11:24