供需格局好转叠加成本支撑，聚酯原料易涨难跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of polyester raw materials has improved, and with cost support, prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. The polyester industry chain is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term, but the fulfillment of peak - season demand needs to be monitored [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On August 25, the PX main contract closed at 6,970.0 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 147.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,862.0 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 8.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 67.26 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 63.77 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 541.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 504.67 million meters [2] - On the supply side, PX device load has increased due to the weakening demand for aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil, and there may be复产 pressure on Asian devices in the fourth quarter. PTA has unexpected maintenance currently, but there is an expectation of restart and output increase in September. On the demand side, weaving orders and Light Textile City transactions have seasonally improved, but the year - on - year growth rate is still low, and the sustainability of terminal orders needs verification. The high polyester operating rate depends on speculative restocking caused by raw material price fluctuations. On the inventory side, PTA factory inventory has reached a high level, and the deep basis discount reflects loose spot circulation. Downstream polyester raw material inventory days are in a neutral range, and there is a risk of implicit inventory turning into explicit inventory [3] Polyester - On August 25, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,596.0 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,585.0 yuan/ton, down 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 11.0 yuan/ton [3] - From August 15 to August 25, PX and PTA prices both increased, indicating stronger cost support or tighter supply. The Light Textile City MA15 transaction volume fluctuated between 480 - 505 million meters, showing weak terminal demand. The inventory pressure of the polyester industry chain is mainly concentrated in the short - fiber segment. The polyester industry chain is expected to remain strong in the short term, and the fulfillment of peak - season demand needs attention [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - For PX, on August 25, the main contract price was 6,970 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from August 22; the main contract trading volume decreased by 8.85%; the main contract position increased by 3.14%. The CFR price at the Chinese main port and the FOB price in South Korea remained unchanged. The PX basis decreased by 2.80% [6] - For PTA, on August 25, the main contract price was 4,862 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from August 22; the main contract trading volume decreased by 7.83%; the main contract position increased by 2.33%. The CFR price at the Chinese main port remained unchanged. The PTA basis increased by 300.00%. The PTA 1 - 5 spread decreased by 72.73%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 71.43%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 70.00%. The PTA import profit increased by 1.73% [6] - For short - fiber, on August 25, the main contract price was 6,596 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from August 22; the main contract trading volume decreased by 16.55%; the main contract position decreased by 2.75%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.23%. The PF basis increased by 21.43%. The PF 1 - 5 spread increased by 32.56%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.78%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 55.17% [6] - Other industrial chain prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged, with only the polyester bottle chip price decreasing by 0.33% [6] - Processing spreads: The PTA processing spread increased by 4.78%, while the processing spreads of other products remained unchanged. The total trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased by 18.89%, the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics decreased by 10.61%, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics decreased by 46.20%. The operating rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7] - Inventory days: From August 14 to August 21, the inventory days of polyester short - fiber decreased by 8.28%, polyester POY decreased by 14.29%, polyester FDY decreased by 2.58%, and polyester DTY decreased by 1.42% [7] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 25, there were various statements from different figures regarding the Fed's interest - rate policy, including views from Harmaak, Trump, Powell, etc. Also, the situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may push up the intensity of the battlefield. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the prices of 27 important production materials in the circulation field rose in mid - August [8] - On August 22, there were statements from potential Fed successor Brad, data on the US S&P Global Composite PMI, initial jobless claims, and continuing jobless claims. The US Department of Justice planned to investigate Fed Governor Cook, and most Fed officials were cautious about interest - rate cuts [8][9] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 25, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 541.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18.89%, including 455.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 85.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [10] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to PX and PTA main - contract futures and basis, spot prices, capacity utilization rates, futures spreads, processing profits, industrial chain operating rates, polyester product sales and production situations, Light Textile City trading volume moving averages, and polyester product inventory days [11][13][15][18][22][23][25][27][28][29]