流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：关注短端和部分地方债新券机会

Group 1 - The central bank maintains a "moderately loose" monetary policy, focusing on the implementation and effectiveness of existing policies without immediate plans for tightening or further easing [10][11] - The monetary policy aims to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade through structural monetary policy tools [10][11] - Recent liquidity conditions have shown unexpected tightening, attributed to restrained reverse repo operations and funds flowing into the stock market, leading to a funding gap [12][18] Group 2 - Local government bonds have seen significant issuance, with a cumulative issuance of 19,310 billion yuan in replacement bonds and 6,208 billion yuan in new general bonds as of August 31 [15][42] - The average implied VAT rate for different maturities of local government bonds varies significantly, with the implied tax rate for 30-year new bonds increasing from around 3% to approximately 5% [16][48] - The pricing of local government bonds has been influenced by the implementation of VAT policies, resulting in higher spreads of over 20 basis points for many regions [16][48] Group 3 - The current yield curves for local government bonds show significant differences, with 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y bonds having valuations of 1.97%, 2.16%, 2.24%, and 2.29% respectively [17] - The secondary market for long-term local government bonds has seen increased buying interest from insurance companies, driven by higher coupon rates [4][17] - The issuance plans for local government bonds in August and September are set at 9,408 billion yuan and 6,797 billion yuan respectively, with August's actual issuance expected to be around 9,776 billion yuan [15][42]