银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250826

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the market is likely to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. The future trend of US cotton is expected to be slightly stronger with oscillations, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short - term, but the upward space is relatively limited. The trading strategy for options is to sell put options, and for arbitrage, it is to wait and see [8][9][12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Futures Disk: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 20, and the closing price of CY01 increased by 5, CY05 remained unchanged, and CY09 decreased by 35. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract also had corresponding changes. For example, the trading volume of CF01 decreased by 94,563, and the open interest increased by 3,455 [3] - Spot Price: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,334 yuan/ton, up 91; the CY IndexC32S price was 20,760, up 20. The Cot A price was 78.90 cents/pound, unchanged; the FCY IndexC33S price was 21,880, down 11. Other spot prices also had corresponding changes [3] - Spreads: In cotton spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was 45 with no change, the 5 - 9 month spread was 275 with no change, and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 320 with no change. In yarn spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 235, up 5, the 5 - 9 month spread was 315, up 35, and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 80, down 40. The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,060, up 25, and the 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 1,437, up 99 [3] Market News and Views - Cotton Market News - As of August 23, Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was 60.3%, up 11.4 percentage points week - on - week, 15.8% slower than last year, mainly due to the lag in Mato Grosso [6] - As of August 24, the boll - setting rate of US cotton was 81%, 7 percentage points slower than last year and 6 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 20%, the same as last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The excellent and good rate was 55%, 15 percentage points higher than last year and 11 percentage points higher than the five - year average [6] - As of August 25, India's weekly cotton market volume was 0.8 million tons, down 20% year - on - year. The cumulative market volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.1675 million tons, down 4% year - on - year. The CAI cumulative market volume reached 98% of the 24/25 season forecast balance sheet output, the same as last year [7] - In 2025, the total volume of the sliding - scale duty processing trade quota for cotton imports is 200,000 tons, and it will be issued on a contract - based application basis [7] - Trading Logic: After the recent China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended by 90 days, and the short - term tariff impact may weaken. China's anti - involution policies have a certain positive impact on commodities. On the supply side, cotton supply is still tight, and whether to issue additional sliding - scale duty quotas in the future will be the main influencing factor. On the demand side, demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season in August. If demand is lower than expected, it will have a negative impact on Zhengzhou cotton [8] - Trading Strategy - Single - side: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger with oscillations, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [12] - Cotton Yarn Industry News - Recently, the transaction in the pure cotton yarn market is okay, and spinning mills are selling at reasonable prices to reduce inventory, but there is still resistance to price increases. The market is worried about large - scale spinning mills' low - price promotions in early September, and the yarn price is expected to be stable in the short - term [12] - The price of the pure cotton grey fabric market is stable with a weak trend, the overall transaction atmosphere is still weak, and fabric mills are mainly digesting inventory. Most fabric mills still have large inventory pressures, and the order improvement is not sustainable. The dyeing factory's order scheduling recovery is limited and weaker than in previous years [12] Options - Volatility: Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 14000 was 10.5%, CF601 - P - 13600 was 9.8%, and CF601 - P - 13400 was 10.1% [14] - Option Strategy Suggestion: Today, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7560, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.6197. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to sell put options [15][16] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff internal - external cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [17][24][27]