银河期货白糖日报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil reaches its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter a stockpiling phase. The actual sugar production in Brazil is currently lower than expected, and the final output remains uncertain. The external sugar price is expected to move sideways. Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and the inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. The domestic sugar price is greatly affected by the international sugar price, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of external sugar [11]. - In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is greatly affected by the international market and is expected to follow the trend of external sugar, with prices fluctuating slightly within a range. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, a strategy of selling relatively out - of - the - money wide straddles can be considered [12][13][14]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,678, down 42 (-0.73%); SR01 closed at 5,632, down 56 (-0.98%); SR05 closed at 5,599, down 47 (-0.83%). The trading volume of SR01 increased by 78,039, and its open interest decreased by 1,534 [5]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan were reported. The price in Nanning decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The basis in different regions ranged from 227 to 692 yuan/ton [5]. - Inter - monthly Spread: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 33, up 9; the SR09 - SR5 spread was 79, up 5; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 46, up 14 [5]. - Import Profit: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand were calculated, along with their spreads to the Liuzhou and Rizhao spot prices and the futures price [5]. Part 2: Market Judgment - Important Information: - Brazil exported 281.39 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of August 2025, a 0.27% increase from the same period last year. The daily average export volume was 17.58 million tons [7]. - The quotes of processing sugar in various regions such as Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong remained unchanged, with general trading volume [8]. - As of the week ending August 19, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 contracts, a decrease of 2,291 from the previous week. Speculative long positions decreased by 11,403, short positions increased by 4,227, and the net short position increased by 15,630 [10]. - Logical Analysis: - Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but the actual sugar production is lower than expected due to low cane crushing volume and sugar content. The external sugar price is expected to move sideways [11]. - Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are fast, and the inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is arriving, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar price [11]. - Trading Strategy: - Unilateral: The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar price and fluctuate slightly in the short - term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Consider selling relatively out - of - the - money wide straddles [14]. Part 3: Relevant Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including those related to Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative sales rate, sugar basis, and futures spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [15][19][24][25][28][30].