海外宏观周报：美联储降息预期升温-20250826

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Jerome Powell indicated a shift towards dovish policies, emphasizing rising employment risks and a potential interest rate cut in September with a probability of about 90%[2][9] - The Federal Reserve has abandoned the average inflation target established in 2020, reverting to a 2% inflation target while maintaining a focus on employment risks[2][22] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a decrease in hiring rates and a widening gap between non-farm employment and ADP employment figures, indicating potential downward revisions in future data[3][21] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The NAHB housing market index fell to 32 in August, nearing a ten-year low, reflecting ongoing weakness in the housing market[10] - Initial jobless claims and continuing claims have shown a slight upward trend, supporting concerns about the labor market[10][14] - The U.S. economy's second-quarter GDP growth was revised to an annualized rate of 3%, indicating resilience despite rising inflation risks[20] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - A significant improvement in employment data or a substantial pass-through of tariff costs to consumers could disrupt the Fed's rate-cutting plans[4][31] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff adjustments may continue to impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability[21][24]