聚酯数据日报-20250826

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA device failures led to a slight decline in production. The spread between PX and naphtha expanded, and the weak benzene price restricted further increase in PX output. The spread between PX and MX recovered, polyester downstream load remained around 88%, and polyester factory inventory was optimistic. Polyester prices were positive, especially the inventory of filament was well - reduced, sales were optimistic, and profits were significantly repaired. Investors should pay attention to the impact of subsequent device progress on the market and be cautious due to large price fluctuations [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): There are rumors of a major reform in the domestic petrochemical and refining industries, aiming to phase out small and outdated facilities and shift investment to advanced materials. South Korean naphtha cracking units plan to cut production, leading to a significant increase in olefin varieties. The price of MEG has recovered, overseas MEG device overhauls, especially in Saudi Arabia, have been continuously postponed, which may significantly impact the market. The future arrival volume of MEG will decrease, polyester inventory is acceptable, and downstream weaving load has rebounded [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Data Changes - Crude Oil and PTA - Crude Oil Relationship: INE crude oil price dropped from 493.6 yuan/barrel on August 22, 2025, to 492.9 yuan/barrel on August 25, 2025, a decrease of 0.70 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased from 1281.0 yuan/ton to 1280.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased slightly from 1.3571 to 1.3574, an increase of 0.0003 [2]. - PX - Related Data: CFR China PX increased from 857 to 859, an increase of 2. The PX - naphtha spread increased from 270 to 272, an increase of 2 [2]. - PTA - Related Data: PTA's main futures price dropped from 4868 yuan/ton to 4862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.0 yuan/ton. The spot price dropped from 4870 yuan/ton to 4850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 250.6 yuan/ton to 245.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.4 yuan/ton. The disk processing fee decreased from 253.6 yuan/ton to 247.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.4 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from 23 to 22, a decrease of 1.0. The number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 30940 [2]. - MEG - Related Data: MEG's main futures price increased from 4474 yuan/ton to 4509 yuan/ton, an increase of 35.0 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha increased from (96.47) yuan/ton to (90.66) yuan/ton, an increase of 5.8 yuan/ton. MEG's domestic price increased from 4518 yuan/ton to 4542 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.0 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from 89 to 95, an increase of 6.0 [2]. - Polyester Product - Related Data: In polyester filament, POY150D/48F price decreased by 20.0, POY cash flow decreased by 11.0; FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged, FDY cash flow increased by 9.0; DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged, DTY cash flow increased by 9.0; filament sales decreased by 25%. In polyester staple fiber, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased by 5, polyester staple fiber cash flow increased by 4.0, and staple fiber sales decreased by 18%. In polyester chips, semi - bright chip price decreased by 10.0, chip cash flow decreased by 1.0, and chip sales decreased by 21% [2]. b) Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 80.38%. PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 74.74%. MEG start - up rate increased from 59.80% to 60.27%, an increase of 0.47%. Polyester load remained unchanged at 86.34% [2]. c) Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China started maintenance on August 26, 2025, and another 2.5 - million - ton device was expected to start maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of over one month [2].