黑色金属数据日报-20250826

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Consider short - term long - position trading opportunities and take profit or roll over cash - and - carry arbitrage based on basis changes [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Go long with a light position [9] - Coking Coal and Coke: Monitor the spread of mine accident impacts, and industrial clients should look for hedging opportunities after price surges [5][9] - Iron Ore: The 01 - contract has effective downside support [6] 2) Core Views - The steel market has a slight recovery in volume and price, with a neutral sentiment. There may be short - term long - position trading opportunities this week. The valuation of steel futures has been restored to a neutral range [2] - The market sentiment of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuates greatly. Although the anti - involution policy supports prices, the industry still has high inventory and de - stocking pressure [3] - In the coking coal and coke market, the eighth round of coke price increase has started. The futures market is strong, but in the short - term, it may be in a volatile pattern, and the medium - term trend depends on steel supply [5] - The iron ore market may be strong in the short - term. Although there is an expected increase in supply, policy impacts may be more important than price itself [6] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On August 25, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2601, JM2605, etc. showed different degrees of increase, with the highest increase of 6.41%. The near - month contract closing prices also had varying degrees of increase, with the highest increase of 6.48% [1] - Spot prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil also increased to different extents on August 25 [1] - The basis of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed on August 25, and the spread and profit of steel products also had corresponding changes [1] - The steel market has a slight recovery in volume and price, and the valuation of steel futures has been restored to a neutral range. This week, pay attention to market risk preference and sentiment, and there may be short - term long - position trading opportunities [2] - Unilateral trading can focus on short - term long - position trading, and cash - and - carry arbitrage can take profit or roll over operations according to basis changes [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the prices rise and fall. The anti - involution policy supports prices. The supply continues to increase, and the inventory is mainly being de - stocked. The industry average profit has been greatly restored, but the inventory is still high and the de - stocking pressure remains [3] - Go long with a light position [9] Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the eighth round of coke price increase has started, and the coking coal auction sentiment is weak. The prices of coking coal in different regions have different changes [5] - On the futures side, the coking coal and coke market is strong. After multiple positive factors, the market is expected to continue to strengthen. In the short - term, it may be in a volatile pattern, and the medium - term trend depends on steel supply [5] - Monitor the spread of mine accident impacts, and industrial clients should look for hedging opportunities after price surges [9] Iron Ore - The black sector has a volatile trend. After the Fed's dovish attitude and coal mine accidents, the black sector rose significantly. The five - major steel products' apparent demand increased, but the iron ore inventory may continue to accumulate [6] - There is an expected increase in iron ore supply in the second half of the year, which will suppress the price increase. However, considering policy impacts, the 01 - contract has effective downside support [6]