贵金属数据日报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On August 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.46% to 779.18 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.89% to 9,394 yuan/kilogram [4] - Fed Chair Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting was dovish, opening the door for a September rate cut. The probability of a September rate cut by the Fed has returned above 90%, supporting the rise of precious metal prices. In the short - term, although the high risk appetite in the equity market may suppress the pace of gold, precious metal prices are strongly supported in the short - term and have room to rise in the long - term. It is recommended to hold long positions or buy on dips. Silver is expected to continue to be strong in the short - term with better elasticity than gold, but in the medium - term, its upside and sustainability need to be treated with caution [4] - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate cut expectations, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with continued gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - On August 25, 2025, London gold spot was 3,368.02 dollars/ounce, London silver spot was 38.93 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3,412.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 38.92 dollars/ounce, AU2510 was 779.18 yuan/gram, AG2510 was 9,394 yuan/kilogram, AU(T + D) was 775.67 yuan/gram, and AG(T + D) was 9,357 yuan/kilogram. Compared with August 22, 2025, the price increases were 1.2%, 2.3%, 1.2%, 2.4%, 0.7%, 2.2%, 0.7%, and 2.1% respectively [3] Spread/Ratios - On August 25, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.51 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 37 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 5.11 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 626 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 82.94, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 87.69, AU2512 - 2510 was 2.30 yuan/gram, and AG2512 - 2510 was 20 yuan/kilogram. Compared with August 22, 2025, the changes were 18.6%, 37.0%, - 26.6%, 1.9%, - 1.4%, - 1.2%, 5.5%, and - 9.1% respectively [3] Position Data - As of August 22, 2025, gold ETF - SPDR was 956.77 tons (unchanged from August 21, 2025), silver ETF - SLV was 15,288.81618 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 275,277 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 62,687 contracts, net long positions were 212,590 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 68,102 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 21,553 contracts, and net long positions were 46,549 contracts. Compared with August 21, 2025, the changes were 0.00%, 0.07%, - 4.46%, 6.92%, - 7.36%, 2.79%, - 1.96%, and 5.15% respectively [3] Inventory Data - On August 25, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 37,515 kilograms, with a 0.16% increase compared to August 22, 2025; SHFE silver inventory was 1,113,641 kilograms, with a 0.41% increase compared to August 22, 2025. On August 22, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38,563,812 ounces, with a - 0.03% change compared to August 21, 2025; COMEX silver inventory was 508,486,930 ounces, unchanged compared to August 21, 2025 [3] Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Markets - On August 25, 2025, the U.S. dollar index was 97.72, the 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 3.68%, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.26%, the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.12, VIX was 14.22, the S&P 500 was 6,466.91, and NYMEX crude oil was 63.77. Compared with August 22, 2025, the changes were - 0.22%, - 2.90%, - 14.34%, - 0.94%, - 1.62%, 1.52%, and 0.46% respectively [4]