Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a characteristic of strong oscillation within a range. The supply side is supported by the US's strengthened export layout and restricted Russian oil supply, but the weak demand in India and potential production increases from OPEC+ (such as the UAE's acquisition) form an upper pressure. In the short term, Trump's energy policy and geopolitical conflict risks may push WTI to continue testing the $65/barrel resistance level, but the spread of weakening Indian demand to other Asian countries should be watched out for. In the medium term, attention should be paid to OPEC+'s production policy adjustment in September and the progress of seasonal refinery maintenance in the Northern Hemisphere. If the expectation of US strategic reserve release rises or the refined oil cracking profit declines, there is a risk of oil price correction, but the geopolitical premium will still support the oil price to oscillate within the range [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On August 25, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract slightly declined by 0.14% to 492.9 yuan/barrel, while the WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $63.77 and $67.26 per barrel respectively. The SC-Brent spread strengthened by 12.16% to $1.66/barrel, and the SC-WTI spread widened by 3.62% to $5.15/barrel, indicating an increase in the premium of SC relative to overseas crude oil. The Brent-WTI spread remained flat at $3.49/barrel, and the contango structure (SC continuous - continuous 3) deepened to -2.8 yuan/barrel, suggesting a market expectation of loose future supply [2]. - The warehouse receipt data shows that the warehouse receipts of fuel oil, medium - sulfur crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged, indicating limited physical delivery pressure and stable market holding sentiment [3]. b. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply side: The Trump administration mentioned expanding oil cooperation with Japan and South Korea in Alaska, which may strengthen US crude oil export capacity; the UAE's Crescent Petroleum Company's acquisition of Vital Energy ($3.1 billion) may drive a marginal increase in Middle East production. India's crude oil imports in July dropped to the lowest level since February 2024 (down 8.7% month - on - month), possibly reflecting the inhibitory effect of OPEC+'s high oil prices on Asian demand. In addition, US sanctions on Russian crude oil supply and EU procurement disputes may limit the inflow of Russian oil into the market, intensifying the expectation of supply tightness [4]. - Demand side: India's refined oil imports decreased by 12.8% year - on - year and exports decreased by 2.1%, indicating weak refinery processing demand, possibly affected by seasonal refinery maintenance and high oil prices. The US energy policy shift towards strengthening crude oil exports (such as the agreement with South Korea), combined with WTI breaking through $64/barrel (intraday increase of over 2%), shows short - term speculative funds' bets on demand recovery. The strengthening of fuel oil cracking (the main contract rose 5%) may support refinery start - up, but the risk of shrinking Asian refining profits should be watched out for [5]. - Inventory side: The changes in US Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories were not clear, but the widening of the SC and Brent - WTI cross - regional spreads implied regional inventory differentiation. The medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 4.767 million barrels, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained at 11,110 tons, indicating limited physical inventory pressure in the Asia - Pacific region. The commercial crude oil inventories of OECD member countries were temporarily neutral in the game between weakening Indian demand and Middle East production increase [6]. c. Price Trend Judgment The current crude oil market shows a characteristic of strong oscillation within a range. The supply side is supported by the US's strengthened export layout and restricted Russian oil supply, but the weak demand in India and potential production increases from OPEC+ (such as the UAE's acquisition) form an upper pressure. The spread structure shows that the widening of the SC premium and the rare inversion of Brent's discount relative to Middle East crude oil reflect regional supply - demand mismatches. In the short term, Trump's energy policy and geopolitical conflict risks may push WTI to continue testing the $65/barrel resistance level, but the spread of weakening Indian demand to other Asian countries should be watched out for. In the medium term, attention should be paid to OPEC+'s production policy adjustment in September and the progress of seasonal refinery maintenance in the Northern Hemisphere. If the expectation of US strategic reserve release rises or the refined oil cracking profit declines, there is a risk of oil price correction, but the geopolitical premium will still support the oil price to oscillate within the range [7][8]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: On August 25, 2025, SC was at 492.90 yuan/barrel (down 0.14% from August 22), WTI was at $64.74/barrel (up 1.52% from August 22), and Brent was at $68.20/barrel (up 1.40% from August 22). - Spot prices: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at $70.26/barrel, and other spot prices had different degrees of increase. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread strengthened by 12.16% to $1.66/barrel, the SC - WTI spread widened by 3.62% to $5.15/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread remained flat at $3.49/barrel. The SC continuous - continuous 3 contango deepened by 3.70% to -2.80 yuan/barrel. - Other assets: The US dollar index rose 0.72% to 98.42, the S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6,439.32 points, the DAX index fell 0.40% to 24,273.12 points, and the RMB exchange rate fell 0.40% to 7.15. - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.41% to 42,068,400 barrels, Cushing inventory increased by 1.82% to 2,347,000 barrels, US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.06% to 40,342,500 barrels, and API inventory decreased by 0.53% to 45,079,600 barrels. - Refinery operations: The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% to 96.60%, and the US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 0.16% to 1,720,800 barrels per day [9]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU was at 2,907.00 yuan/ton (up 4.61% from August 22), LU was at 3,526.00 yuan/ton (up 0.77% from August 22), and NYMEX fuel oil was at 234.95 cents/gallon (up 1.75% from August 22). - Spot prices: Most spot prices of fuel oil had different degrees of increase. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread data was not available, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 14.03% to 619.00 yuan/ton, the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 1.36% to -1,961.00 yuan/ton, and the FU - Singapore 380CST spread increased by 6.61% to -1,807.00 yuan/ton. - Platts prices: Platts (380CST) was at $390.52/ton (up 0.66% from the previous period), and Platts (180CST) was at $403.06/ton (up 0.34% from the previous period). - Inventory: Singapore's inventory decreased by 6.53% to 2,303,500 tons, and other US distillate inventory data was not fully available [10]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply On August 25, according to foreign media reports, India's crude oil imports in July decreased by 8.7% month - on - month to 18.56 million tons, the lowest level since February 2024, and decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. Meanwhile, refined oil imports decreased by about 12.8% year - on - year to 4.31 million tons, and refined oil exports decreased by 2.1% to 5.02 million tons [11][12]. b. Demand On August 25, according to foreign media reports, the Indonesian Ministry of Trade urged the EU to immediately cancel the counter -vailing duties on biodiesel imports because the WTO made a ruling in favor of Indonesia on several key claims in the complaint filed by Indonesia [13]. c. Inventory The night - session fuel oil price increased by nearly 1% [14]. d. Market Information As of the close on August 26, the price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.14 to $64.80 per barrel, an increase of 1.79%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose $1.07 to $68.80 per barrel, an increase of 1.58% [15]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread statistics between SC and WTI, US weekly crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, global regional oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, US refinery crude oil processing volume (4 - week moving average), US weekly net crude oil imports (4 - week moving average), Japanese refinery actual capacity utilization rate, Shandong local refinery (atmospheric and vacuum distillation) operating rate, China's monthly refined oil production (gasoline, diesel, kerosene), US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves), US Cushing crude oil inventory, US strategic crude oil inventory, fuel oil futures price trends, Singapore high - low sulfur spreads, cross - regional high - low sulfur spreads, international port IFO380 spot prices, Chinese high - low sulfur spreads, and fuel oil inventory [17][19][21][23][25][26][30][32][36][37][39][43][44][46][50][51][53][56][57][60][61].
原油、燃料油周报：地缘风险支撑油价，原油区间内偏强震荡-20250826
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-26 12:37