银河期货油脂日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the upward momentum of the oil market is insufficient, and prices may correct, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for the correction to go long at low prices. YP01 may rebound in the short - term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the correction. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [5][6][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 is 8456 with a decline of 32. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8656, 8796, and 8586 respectively, and the basis and their changes vary. The closing price of palm oil 2601 is 9500 with a decline of 82, and the spot prices and basis in different regions also have corresponding values and changes. The closing price of rapeseed oil 2601 is 9821 with a decline of 70, and the spot prices and basis in different regions are presented as well [3] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 300 with a decline of 8; for palm oil, it is 262 with a decline of 30; for rapeseed oil, it is 167 with a decline of 7 [3] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 1044 with an increase of 50, the OI - Y spread is 1365 with a decline of 38, the OI - P spread is 321 with an increase of 12, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.74 with an increase of 0.02 [3] - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil's Malaysian & Indonesian盘面利润 is - 178, and the FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil is 1075 with a盘面利润 of - 751 [3] - Weekly Commercial Inventories: In the 34th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 109.4 tons (compared with 118.6 tons last week and 114.3 tons last year), the palm oil inventory is 58.2 tons (compared with 61.7 tons last week and 59.4 tons last year), and the rapeseed oil inventory is 64.6 tons (compared with 66.0 tons last week and 42.2 tons last year) [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 58.21 tons, a decrease of 3.52 tons (5.70%) from last week, at a slightly above - average level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation decreased, the import profit inversion narrowed, and there were rumors of 2 far - month vessel purchases. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight increase [5] - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 227 tons, and the operating rate was 63.81%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 118.6 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons (3.79%) from last week, slightly lower than the same period in history but higher than the three - year average for the same period. The basis was stable [6] - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4.48 tons, and the operating rate was 11.94%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 66 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from last week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil increased to around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil widened to around - 600. There were rumors of near - month rapeseed wash sales. The spot market was sluggish, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decrease [6][9] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: Short - term, expect the oil prices to correct due to insufficient upward momentum, but the correction range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for the correction to go long at low prices [11] - Arbitrage Strategy: YP01 may rebound in the short - term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding; P15 can be considered to be expanded after the correction [11] - Options Strategy: On the sidelines [12] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - There are 8 figures including the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15][18]