银河期货纯碱玻璃周报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, with the approaching of the 09 contract delivery month, the market follows the near - month delivery logic, and the far - month price adjusts accordingly. The macro - driving force weakens, and the delivery logic becomes more prominent. The supply is increasing, but the increase in upstream inventory is not obvious due to manufacturers fulfilling previous orders, and the spot price remains stable. It is expected to be weak in the short term [14]. - For glass, the near - month contracts are weaker due to delivery and spot price cuts, showing a reverse spread trend. The far - month has expectations of cold repair and rush - work, remaining relatively stable in weakness. The supply is stable, the downstream replenishment sentiment has marginally improved after price cuts, but the overall situation needs further observation. The inventory has increased slightly, and the enterprise profit has weakened, with the glass expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash output was 771,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons (1.3%). The supply was affected by the resumption of Inner Mongolia Chemical and Xuzhou Fengcheng devices and the reduction of Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical. It is expected that Qinghai Wucai may have maintenance next week, and the weekly output is expected to be 730,000 tons. The theoretical profit of soda ash has decreased [7]. - The soda ash plant inventory continued to accumulate to 1.911 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons, with light and heavy alkalis both accumulating. The social inventory increased by 6.4% to 496,000 tons [13]. 3.1.2 Demand - The apparent demand for soda ash this week was 754,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3%. The demand for heavy alkali decreased by 2.2% week - on - week, while that for light alkali increased by 15.2% week - on - week. Manufacturers are fulfilling previous orders, and the sales pressure is not large [10]. 3.1.3 Market Performance - This week, soda ash increased in position and accelerated its decline, leading the decline weekly. With the approaching of the 09 contract delivery month, the market follows the near - month delivery logic, and the far - month price adjusts accordingly [14]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - The daily output of float glass was 159,600 tons, remaining stable week - on - week. The profit of float glass with different fuels has decreased, but the supply has not reached the cold - repair loss area, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17]. 3.2.2 Demand - After the price cut, the downstream replenishment sentiment has marginally improved, but the actual demand growth is limited. As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53% [21]. 3.2.3 Market Performance - This week, glass led the decline. The near - month contracts were affected by delivery and spot price cuts and weakened, showing a reverse spread trend. The far - month has expectations of cold repair and rush - work, remaining relatively stable in weakness [24].