银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250826

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Eggs Daily Report" [2] - Report Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3376, down 7 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3475, down 7; JD09 closed at 2916, down 35 [3] - 01-05 spread remained unchanged at -99; 05-09 spread increased by 28 to 559; 09-01 spread decreased by 28 to -460 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio decreased by 0.01 to 1.56; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio increased by 0.01 to 1.10 [3] Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.01 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin [3][6] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.74 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [3][9] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was 3.41 yuan, up 1.77 yuan from the previous day [3] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.74 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan/feather [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The national mainstream egg prices were mixed today. Beijing's egg prices increased by 5 yuan per box. Egg prices in Northeast China and some other regions increased, while those in Shandong, Henan, and other regions were mostly stable [6] - In July, the national laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises in July was 39.98 million, a month-on-month decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4% [7] - From August to November 2025, the estimated laying hen inventories are 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 11 - 14, the national main production area culled chicken slaughter volume was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 11 - 14, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8] - As of August 4 - 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous week [8] - As of August 11 - 14, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was -0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. On August 8, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 11.92 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/feather from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply - side pressure is still obvious. The laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period over the years. The outflow of cold - storage eggs has put pressure on prices. The egg prices in the peak season have not increased but decreased. Without large - scale over - culling, the short - selling logic holds [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting at high prices [11] - Arbitrage: Short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [11] - Options: Sell call options [11]