橡胶甲醇原油：偏多氛围减弱，能化震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising on Tuesday. The price center slightly moved up to the 15,885 yuan/ton level during the session, and closed slightly up 0.28% to 15,885 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 995 yuan/ton. With the game between the improvement of macro - expectations and the negative factors of the industry, it is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling on Tuesday. The price reached a maximum of 2,430 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,392 yuan/ton, and closed down 1.16% to 2,395 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 123 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline of domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and slightly weaker trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, decreasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising on Tuesday. The price reached a maximum of 500.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 494.0 yuan/barrel, and closed slightly up 0.53% to 496.1 yuan/barrel. With the digestion of previous negative factors and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected that domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices may maintain an oscillating and stable trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively. The growth rate of production and sales expanded by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with January - June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.82%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons last year [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.80%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88% [10]. - As of August 22, 2025, the domestic methanol to olefin futures盘面 profit was - 172 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 21, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 310,900 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 99,700 tons compared with 410,600 tons last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.382 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels/day and a slight year - on - year decrease of 18,000 barrels/day [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 421 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 23.47 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 419,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.6%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 120,209 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 176,893 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,885 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 935 yuan/ton | +120 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | - 22 yuan/ton | 2,395 yuan/ton | - 29 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 467.9 yuan/barrel | +0.2 yuan/barrel | 496.1 yuan/barrel | +3.2 yuan/barrel | - 28.3 yuan/barrel | - 3.1 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: There are charts including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, all - steel tire start - up rate trend, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, semi - steel tire start - up rate trend, and rubber 9 - 1 month spread [15][17][19] - Methanol: There are charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol to olefin start - up rate change, methanol inland social inventory, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: There are charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery start - up rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]