Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The prices of non - ferrous metals are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand changes, policy expectations, and macro - economic indicators. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Market sentiment and fundamentals: Market sentiment was affected by actual economic data. Domestic refined copper output in August will remain at a record level, and the impact of maintenance in September and October may increase. The production of recycled copper is restricted, and the social inventory of SHFE copper has decreased. However, except for copper foil orders in power grids and integrated circuits, the market is mainly affected by seasonal factors [1]. - Price trend: There may be resistance when the price rises again. First, pay attention to the resistance at the upper level, with the focus in the range of 79,600 - 80,000 yuan. Notice the opportunity to buy put options at 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The price of alumina is in a high - level range historically, and the industry inventory continues to increase. The spot trading is weak, but the cost support limits the downward space. High - selling and low - buying are recommended in the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable at 4,000 tons, with a small amount of production resuming in Guizhou and Guangxi. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased, and the exports of aluminum products have changed. The social inventory of aluminum has decreased, and the processing fee has remained stable. The price of SHFE aluminum may be under pressure in the 20,500 - 21,000 yuan area [1]. Lead - Price trend: Last week, the price was mainly driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand. The market showed a resonance of spot and futures. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Market situation: The inventory of zinc is at a high level, and the 0 - 3 month backwardation is large. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as transportation and consumption policies. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Stainless steel: The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down. New tariff regulations may impact exports. The inventory is at a certain level, and it is recommended to actively intervene in short - selling [1]. Tin - Market situation: The price of tin has shown a certain volatility. The supply of domestic tin mines is tight, and the consumption shows seasonal characteristics. The inventory has decreased, and the price center of gravity may rise. The price is expected to be in the range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan, and the high - level area is above 275,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market situation: The market sentiment is uncertain, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. A long - biased thinking is recommended with good risk control [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market situation: The price is under pressure at the 9,000 yuan/ton level. The supply and demand both increase, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - Market situation: The policy has not met expectations, and the market will continue to fluctuate [1]. Recommended Strategies - Hold the high - short strategy for SHFE aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Buy put options for SHFE copper 2500 contract. Grasp the opportunity of put options [1]. - Allocate long positions for the silver 2512 contract, with a target price of 1050 and a stop - loss of 910% [1].
有色金属周度观点-20250826
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-26 13:17