有色金属日报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including market trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday saw Shanghai copper contract give back the previous day's gains, with spot copper at 79,585 yuan, and premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong at 130 and 65 yuan/ton respectively [2] - The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list, which may make related projects eligible for federal funding or simplified licensing procedures [2] - Shanghai copper faces strong resistance at the integer level, and short positions at high levels are recommended to be held [2] Aluminum - On the day, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with East China spot prices falling to par [3] - At the end of August to September, there is an increasing expectation of smelter production cuts and maintenance, and transportation restrictions in central and northern China lead to regional supply shortages [6] - The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are improving, but the high inventory of the outer market and the insufficient expected increase in domestic lead - acid battery consumption limit the rebound space [6] - It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [6] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising [3] - Supply surplus is emerging, with northern spot transactions falling below 3,200 yuan, and alumina is in a weak and volatile state [3] - The 3,000 - yuan level provides temporary support, and short - term long positions can be considered if the futures discount continues to widen [3] Zinc - Overseas and domestic mine - end increments are being realized, TC continues to rise, and domestic smelters are highly motivated to increase production [4] - The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and zinc inventory is continuously becoming visible, putting pressure on Shanghai zinc [4] - With the approaching peak season in September and the expected Fed rate cut, the macro - level is slightly optimistic, but it does not resonate well with the supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly, with dull market trading [7] - Traders have a strong willingness to support prices, and the premium range of mainstream electrowon nickel remains at - 100 - 300 yuan/ton this week [7] - Pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, nickel - iron inventory remained at 33,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory remained at 934,000 tons [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions slightly and closed with a positive line just below 270,000 yuan [8] - Spot tin rose to 270,000 yuan, at par with the 2509 contract, and the strength of spot pricing should be monitored [8] - Tin prices still have the intention to rebound, and long positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and market trading shrank [9] - Some miners sold goods during the futures price increase, and there was sporadic auction supply [9] - After the futures price dived, there was temporary reluctance to sell, and the market is bullish in the short - term with risk control [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased positions and declined, affected by the weakening coking coal price and the stable expectation of polysilicon capacity management policy [10] - In terms of fundamentals, supply in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan increased this month, and demand also followed up, with a significant increase in polysilicon production scheduling in August [10] - The short - term sentiment makes the futures price weak, and the support level at 8,300 yuan/ton should be observed [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to fluctuate [11] - After last week's industry meeting, the spot price of N - type re -投料 rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and actual transactions need to be tracked [11] - The inventory pressure of polysilicon is greater than that of silicon wafers, and production scheduling in August is likely to decline to repair the supply - demand structure [11]