黑色金属日报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ (representing a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The overall situation of the steel - related futures market is complex. The terminal demand is weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the futures prices of various varieties are under different pressures and trends. Some varieties are expected to be volatile, and the market is affected by factors such as production limits, demand changes, and policy expectations [2][3][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. Thread's apparent demand increased, production decreased, and inventory continued to rise. Hot - roll demand improved, production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. Iron - water production remained high, and the market faced negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level was low. With the approaching parade, attention should be paid to the production - limit intensity in Tangshan and other places. The downstream demand was weak, and the market was short - term under pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron - ore futures prices weakened. Global shipments declined from the high level but were still stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals decreased, and port inventory increased slightly last week, with a short - term small inventory - accumulation trend expected. On the demand side, there was a conversion between peak and off - peak seasons for terminal demand, iron - water production remained high, steel - mill profitability weakened, and there were production - reduction expectations around the parade. Overall, the supply - demand of iron ore weakened marginally, and it was expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The intraday coke price declined. With the approaching major event, there were new production - limit expectations for coking plants in East China. Iron - water daily output increased, steel - making profit remained high, the seventh round of coke price adjustment was fully implemented, and coking daily output increased slightly. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness declined. The coke price was affected by the "anti - involution" policy and had high short - term volatility [4] Coking Coal - The intraday coking - coal price declined. The output of coking coal mines decreased, spot auction transactions weakened, and the transaction price followed the futures price down. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, while total coking - coal inventory increased month - on - month, and production - end inventory was likely to continue to increase in the short term. The price was affected by the "anti - involution" policy and had high short - term volatility [6] Silicomanganese - The intraday silicomanganese price fluctuated weakly. Attention should be paid to the shipment of South32's Australian mines. On the demand side, iron - water production remained above 240. Silicomanganese weekly output continued to increase, and the inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices decreased slightly this week, but due to the approaching major event, manufacturers stocked up in advance, and the price had limited downside space. In the long - term, manganese ore was expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] Ferrosilicon - The intraday ferrosilicon price fluctuated weakly. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month. The overall demand was okay, supply increased significantly, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. Ferrosilicon mainly followed the trend of silicomanganese [8]