国投期货化工日报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Plastic: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Styrene: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ★☆★, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Urea: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Glass: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the chemical futures market is diverse, with different products showing various trends and fundamentals [2][3][5] - The supply and demand relationship, production costs, seasonal factors, and policy impacts are the main factors affecting the price trends of chemical products [2][5][6] Summary by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated narrowly during the day. Production enterprises have low inventory pressure and still have a certain willingness to support prices, but downstream demand has weakened [2] - Polyolefin futures also fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene domestic supply has increased, and the demand for PO film is entering the peak production season, but short - term downstream procurement willingness is low. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and new orders from downstream are difficult to improve significantly [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene fluctuated narrowly. The port inventory has decreased slightly, but domestic demand is weak. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but high imports still pose pressure [3] - Styrene futures closed down in a volatile manner. Cost support has slightly improved, but there is a lack of upward momentum. Supply remains high, and demand is stable with minor changes [3] Polyester - PX price once rose sharply due to rumors of device maintenance, but then fell back. The supply - demand expectation is improving, but stronger drivers are needed for further price increases [5] - Ethylene glycol is short - term strong, and its medium - term upward trend depends on policies and the pace of peak - season demand recovery [5] - Short fiber is mainly driven by cost. If demand improves in the medium term, it can be considered for long - position allocation. Bottle chip has long - term over - capacity pressure, and its processing margin has weakened [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell, and the near - month contracts had a larger decline. Domestic supply has increased, demand has weakened, and port inventory is expected to accumulate rapidly [6] - Urea futures prices fluctuated weakly. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC weakened during the day. Supply is high, demand is weak, and social inventory has been increasing since July. The price may fluctuate within a range [7] - Caustic soda prices fell from a high level. Although demand has supported inventory decline, there is supply pressure and price resistance from downstream, so further price increases are limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell. Supply fluctuated slightly, inventory is high, and the weak - reality pattern continues. However, the demand for heavy soda has increased slightly [8] - Glass prices weakened. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating slowly. The price is expected to have limited downward space [8]