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哈尔斯(002615):H1泰国产能如期推进,长期优势有望凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29% to 90 million yuan [2][3]. - The company's export sales showed robust growth, with H1 export revenue reaching 1.37 billion yuan, up 14.1% year-on-year. Despite some short-term disruptions in the supply chain, the overall export performance remained strong [3]. - The company's profitability was temporarily pressured by capacity transfer and exchange rate fluctuations, with a gross margin of 28.7%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 270 million yuan, with a growth rate of -5.4%. The expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 310 million yuan and 350 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 13.6% and 13.7% [4][5]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 3.33 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.73 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13% [5][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.58 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 [5][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of thermal cups, leveraging its overseas production capacity to enhance competitive advantages. The establishment of a Thai factory has contributed to its revenue growth [3][4]. - The company aims to strengthen its domestic brand presence by elevating thermal cups from mere "drinking vessels" to "lifestyle carriers," tapping into the trend of domestic premium products [3].