国投期货软商品日报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Paper Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait - and - see approach [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait - and - see approach [1] - Log: ☆☆☆, suggesting the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait - and - see approach [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait - and - see approach [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait - and - see approach [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile and strong, and the upward space is cautiously viewed. For sugar, the US sugar price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is weakly volatile. Apple futures are volatile, and the market focuses on the new - season yield estimate. Rubber demand improves, supply increases, natural rubber inventory decreases, and synthetic rubber inventory rises, with a cautious market sentiment. Paper pulp supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Log supply is low, demand is in the off - season, and inventory pressure is small [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, and the mainstream basis of cotton spot remained stable with average spot trading. Pure cotton yarn trading was average, and prices were generally stable. In July, China's cotton imports were still low, with 50,000 tons imported, a year - on - year decrease of 149,400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons. The issuance of a 200,000 - ton sliding - scale duty processing trade quota has a limited impact on the overall domestic supply. The estimated large pre - sales volume of new cotton may lead to competition among ginneries, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is volatile and strong, and it is advisable to buy on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of July was bullish. In the short term, the US sugar price may stabilize and rebound due to the possible lower - than - expected sugar production in Brazil. In the medium term, the US sugar futures price has not bottomed out. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. The sales rhythm this year was fast, inventory decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the yield estimate of the next crushing season. The production forecast for the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. The price of early - maturing apples was basically stable, and high - quality apples had a high price with good purchasing enthusiasm from merchants. The remaining volume of cold - storage apples was small, and market demand was average. As of August 22, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 404,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.84%. Last week, the de - stocking volume of national cold - storage apples was 57,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.13%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate, and there are still differences in the production forecast [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&NR rose and then fell, and BR declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price continued to rise. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded significantly last week, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate declined. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires continued to rise, and that of semi - steel tires rebounded. Tire enterprise inventories continued to increase. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 606,000 tons this week, while the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rebounded to 121,000 tons last week, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory continued to rise significantly to 273,000 tons. The market sentiment is cautious, and the strategy is to wait and see [5] Paper Pulp - Today, paper pulp futures continued to decline. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was stable at 5,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,180 yuan/ton. The price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was stable at 4,200 yuan/ton. As of August 21, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream paper pulp ports in China was 2.132 million tons, a 33,000 - ton increase from the previous period and a 1.6% month - on - month increase. Domestic social retail data in July weakened month - on - month, indicating a decline in domestic demand. Currently, domestic port inventory is high year - on - year, paper pulp supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Log - Log futures prices fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Last week, the arrival volume decreased significantly. The foreign - market quotation has been rising for two consecutive months, while the domestic spot price has increased slightly, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and domestic supply may remain low. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation is good. As of August 22, the total national port log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a 0.33% month - on - month decrease. The log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started yet, so it is advisable to wait and see [7]