Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-26 14:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) is maintained as "Buy" [6] Core Views - The report highlights that Qingdao Beer has achieved a revenue of 20.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.90 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.21% [6] - The company is expected to continue optimizing its product structure, with a forecasted net profit of 4.79 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [6] - The report emphasizes the potential for profit margin improvement due to cost reductions in raw materials and an increase in the proportion of high-end products [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 33.50 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.2% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.79 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.3% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 3.51 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 20 [2] Market Data - As of August 26, 2025, the closing price of Qingdao Beer is 69.78 yuan, with a market capitalization of 49.48 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a dividend yield of 3.15%, based on the most recent dividend announcement [3] - The price-to-book ratio is reported at 3.1 [3] Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, the company sold 2.471 million tons of beer, marking a 1% increase year-on-year, with a revenue per ton of 4,065.41 yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% [6] - The sales volume of the main brand and mid-to-high-end products increased by 3.8% and 4.81% respectively, with mid-to-high-end products accounting for 39.7% of total sales [6] Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton of beer in Q2 2025 was 2,201.88 yuan, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin of 45.84%, an increase of 3.05 percentage points [6] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 21.84%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.23 percentage points [6]