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主要品种策略早餐-20250826
Guang Jin Qi Huo·2025-08-26 14:33

Group 1: Financial Futures and Options - Stock Index Futures - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias, and the medium - term view is bullish. The global risk sentiment is boosted by the dovish stance of the Fed Chair at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and the market expects two rate cuts this year. The market volume is high, and policy measures are in place to boost domestic demand [1]. - Key Points: - Hold long positions in IF2509 and IO - 4300 - P put options for protection [1]. - Overseas, the Fed's possible rate cut in September boosts global risk sentiment and benefits the valuation of science - and - technology - related sectors [1]. - In terms of capital sentiment, market volume is high, margin trading balance is stable above 2.1 trillion, and the proportion of margin trading balance to market capitalization has risen to 2.30%. Leverage funds are actively entering the market. Equity ETFs have net inflows [1]. - Policy - wise, the State Council is promoting policies to expand domestic demand [1]. Group 2: Financial Futures and Options - Treasury Bond Futures - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a continued rebound, and the medium - term view is a rebound in the making. The bond market is expected to return to an upward trend in the long - term [2][3]. - Key Points: - Hold long positions in TL2512 [2]. - The central bank's MLF operation has led to a large - scale net injection, and the inter - bank market funds are abundant. Short - term interest rates have declined [3]. - The stock - bond seesaw effect is weakening. Although the equity market is strong in the short - term, the bond market is expected to rise in the long - term [3]. - Economic data in July showed a slowdown, indicating that the bond market is unlikely to shift from a bull to a bear market [3]. Group 3: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a range - bound movement between 79,290 and 80,100, and the medium - term view is a range - bound movement between 60,000 and 90,000. The price is expected to rise with some support factors [4][5]. - Key Points: - Adopt an operation idea of oscillating with a slight upward bias [5]. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September provides macro - level support for copper prices [4]. - The supply side is tightening, with some mines approaching export quotas and potential production cuts by refineries. However, some producers have different production trends [4]. - The demand side is positive, with an increase in global refined copper consumption, growth in China's power grid investment, and a significant increase in global energy - storage battery shipments [4]. Group 4: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Industrial Silicon - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday and medium - term views are both bullish. The price is expected to be strong [8]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea [8]. - In July, China's industrial silicon production decreased by 30.56% year - on - year [8]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level in the past seven years, which is a negative factor for prices [8]. - The "Kunming Initiative" in the industrial silicon industry aims to boost prices [9]. Group 5: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Polysilicon - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday and medium - term views are both bullish. The price is expected to be strong [10]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea [10]. - In June, China's polysilicon production decreased by 33.11% year - on - year [10]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of polysilicon increased week - on - week, indicating an obvious oversupply [12]. - The "anti - involution" expectation boosts polysilicon prices [13]. Group 6: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Aluminum - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is high - level operation, and the medium - term view is bullish. The price is supported by supply and demand factors [14]. - Key Points: - Sell AL2510 - P - 19300 put options [14]. - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has limited room for growth after the 2017 supply - side reform [14]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at the second - lowest level in the past five years, which is positive for prices [14]. - China's automobile production and sales have increased year - on - year, which is beneficial for aluminum prices [14]. Group 7: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Lithium Carbonate - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is wide - range fluctuations, and the medium - term view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. The price is affected by supply, inventory, and market information [17]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea but operate cautiously [17][18]. - On August 25, the price of lithium carbonate declined for three consecutive days, but increased in the past 30 days [17]. - In July 2025, China's battery - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 51% year - on - year, and the total inventory is at a high level this year, which is negative for prices [17]. Group 8: Commodity Futures and Options - Black and Building Materials - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The short - term view is a decline with limited downside, and the medium - term view is a lack of upward momentum. The cost support for steel prices is weakening [19]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 [19]. - The supply of iron ore and coking coal is expected to increase, weakening the cost support for steel prices [19]. - Policy - based production restrictions are less than expected, and steel production is still high. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil has been accumulating, reducing the upward momentum [19][20]. Group 9: Commodity Futures and Options - Agriculture, Livestock, and Soft Commodities - Sugar - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is bearish, and the medium - term view is that there is strong support at the bottom. The global sugar supply and demand situation is complex [21]. - Key Points: - There is strong support at the bottom. The reference range for Zhengzhou sugar is (5,500, 5,900) [21]. - Brazil's sugar production and exports decreased in July. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is also expected to increase production [21]. - In China, the production of refined sugar is at a historical high, and the supply is expected to be more abundant with the listing of Inner Mongolia's beet sugar [21]. Group 10: Commodity Futures and Options - Agriculture, Livestock, and Soft Commodities - Protein Meal - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is that soybean meal 2601 will continue to oscillate in the range of [3,075, 3,175], and the medium - term view is that it will fluctuate significantly in August and September. The market is affected by the production of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed [22]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in soybean oil 2601 and long positions in palm oil 2601 [22]. - The average yield of US corn and soybeans is expected to reach a record high. The situation of US soybean exports to China needs attention [22][23]. - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is approaching, and the production is expected to increase significantly [24]. Group 11: Commodity Futures and Options - Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The short - term view is that there is upward potential, and the long - term view is that prices are under pressure. The oil market is affected by supply, demand, and geopolitical factors [25][27]. - Key Points: - Sell out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil [25]. - OPEC+ is maintaining its production increase strategy, and the supply of heavy - oil is still tight due to geopolitical factors. The US oil production growth is expected to slow down [26]. - The demand for gasoline in the US is seasonally declining, and the diesel demand is expected to improve. The inventory is expected to accumulate in the third quarter [27]. Group 12: Commodity Futures and Options - Energy and Chemicals - PVC - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a stable rebound, and the medium - term view is that there is support at the bottom. The PVC market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors [28]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on PVC [28]. - The price of calcium carbide has increased due to reduced supply. The supply of PVC has decreased recently but is expected to increase in the future [28][29]. - The demand for PVC is weak, and the inventory is currently accumulating. However, the inventory is expected to decrease in the future, and the export may recover [29][30].