国投期货农产品日报-20250826

Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: Neutral (White Star) [1] - Bean Meal: Slightly Bullish (One Red Star) [1] - Soybean Oil: Neutral (White Star) [1] - Palm Oil: Neutral (White Star) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Neutral (White Star) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Neutral (White Star) [1] - Corn: Slightly Bearish (One Green Star) [1] - Live Hogs: Slightly Bearish (One Green Star) [1] - Eggs: Neutral (White Star) [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows a complex situation with different trends in various varieties. Some are affected by supply - demand factors, some by policies, and others by weather and trade relations [2][3][7] - There are opportunities for long - term investment in some varieties like eggs, while others like live hogs are expected to remain weak in the medium - term [8][9] Summary by Variety Bean No.1 - The price of Bean No.1 is in a weak decline due to increased supply pressure from policy - driven soybean auctions and weak demand. The spread between Bean No.1 and Bean No.2 is in consolidation. Short - term focus should be on soybean policies and Sino - US trade relations [2] Soybean & Bean Meal - As of August 24, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, higher than expected. Global oil strength may boost soybean crushing. China's soybean supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a gap in Q1 next year. The situation of "crushing for oil" has emerged. The long - term view on domestic bean meal is cautiously bullish [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The market has positive expectations for Sino - US trade negotiations. US soybean oil is in a short - term rebound and then in a shock. Mid - term overseas palm oil is in a production - reducing cycle. Long - term, there is a development trend for US and Indonesian biodiesel. Bean and palm oils can be considered for buying at low prices with risk control [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed varieties' futures prices closed down today, dragged down by the weak external rapeseed market. The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed affect global rapeseed prices. The domestic rapeseed market is in a short - term shock and the price center may shift down [6] Corn - China Grain Reserves Corporation continued to auction imported corn with a 15% transaction rate. Shandong's corn supply is stable. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 24. Domestic new - season corn may have a good harvest, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The live hog spot price is weak, with the average slaughter price hitting a new low. The supply is abundant. The futures price follows the spot price. The supply is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the price is expected to remain weak in the medium - term. Policy aims at industry capacity reduction, but the inflection point has not been seen [8] Eggs - Egg futures are weak, with some contracts hitting new lows and funds increasing positions. Spot prices are rising in many places. There may be a seasonal rebound in egg prices from late August to September. In the long - term, there are signs of accelerated culling of old hens, and there is a high probability of capacity reduction in the second half of the year. It is advisable to consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year at low prices [9]