航运衍生品数据日报-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is experiencing a rebound, mainly due to the market's increased expectation of interest rate cuts after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the anticipation of a rush to ship furniture before potential tariffs. However, the current shipping market demand remains weak, with spot freight rates accelerating to the bottom, and the overall trend is downward [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Index Data - Freight Rate Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and related sub - indices showed declines, with SCFI - Northwest Europe having the largest decline of - 8.35%, and EC2510 in the derivatives having the largest increase of 3.74% [5]. - Positions: There were changes in the positions of various contracts, such as a decrease of 22 in the EC2606 position and an increase of 102 in the EC2410 position [5]. - Monthly Spreads: The monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 all increased, with the 12 - 4 spread increasing by 16.0 [5]. 3.2 Market Situation - Demand and Supply: The demand in the shipping market is weak. In late August, the increase in overtime ships pressured the spot freight rates. The market is buyer - dominated, and there are no clear price - increase plans from shipping companies. The announced empty - sailing rate for European routes in September is low, and the supply of shipping capacity is abundant in the short term [8]. - Port Conditions: European main ports such as Germany and the Netherlands are congested, and the on - time rate of the Asia - Europe route has decreased by 13.3%, which may affect subsequent cabin allocation and arrival cycles [8]. - Policy Impact: Trump's potential tariff policy on furniture and the global over - capacity problem have further suppressed trade volume [8]. 3.3 Market Trend and Strategy - Trend: Shipping companies are accelerating the price - cut rhythm to maintain market share, and the overall downward trend of freight rates is established. The spot freight rate is in the stage of accelerating to the bottom, and the follow - up decline of the futures market may be smaller [9]. - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to short the October contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [10].