蛋白数据日报-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The new US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is tight. Under the current China - US trade policy, the discount of Brazilian soybeans is expected to have a limited decline. With the support of import costs, the downside space below 00 is expected to be limited. The futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and show a volatile upward trend in the medium - to - long - term due to the expected increase in costs. Attention should be paid to changes in China - US policies [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre from 52.5 to 53.6 bushels per acre, a record high, but unexpectedly cut the 25/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. As a result, the 25/26 US soybean ending stocks were cut from 310 million bushels in July to 290 million bushels [5]. - The Pro Farmer inspection showed that the estimated yield per acre of new US soybeans was 63 bushels, lower than the USDA estimate. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans remained at 68%, still at a high level. Rainfall in the production areas in the next two weeks was expected to be low, but the temperature was low, which might lead to a downward revision of the good - excellent rate [5]. - The arrival of soybeans in China in August and September is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to remain in the inventory accumulation cycle. Shipments from October to January are slow, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [5][6]. Demand - Short - term high inventory levels of pigs and poultry support soybean meal demand. However, policy - oriented control of pig inventory and weight is expected to affect far - month pig supply [6]. - Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of high - protein feed. Soybean meal downstream transactions this week are relatively cautious [6]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The inventory accumulation rate of soybean meal has slowed down but is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6]. Price and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in different regions such as Dalian, Tianjin, and Zhangjiagang, as well as the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong, and various spread data such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, etc. [4][5]