债市拐点信号明确了吗？

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the report is provided [1][2][6] Group 2: Core Views - Since August, the bond market has undergone significant adjustments, especially in the long - end, with the overall bond market showing a bear - steepening trend, and the interest rate adjustment exceeding that of credit. The market is concerned about the end of the adjustment and the opportunity and scope for the subsequent recovery. The bond market adjustment inflection point requires two conditions: the full release of pessimistic expectations and the emergence of at least one widely - recognized bullish main line [2][6][15] - Currently, the pessimistic expectations in the bond market may have been basically released. Three possible bullish main lines are: the stock and bond markets moving independently, the central bank's potential interest rate cut from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, and the confirmation of the inflection point of the social financing growth rate. Among them, the first and the third scenarios are more likely, while the expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut needs further observation. The current bond market inflection point signal is clear, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may face strong resistance around 1.8%. It is recommended to seize the bond market opportunities arising from the adjustment [2][10][38] Group 3: Summary by Directory 8 - month Bond Market Adjustment - Since August, the bond market has adjusted significantly, with the long - end adjustment being more prominent. From August 1st to 22nd, the 30 - year Treasury yield rose by 13bps to 2.08%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose by 8bps to 1.78%, while the short - end 1 - year Treasury yield slightly declined. The adjustment of 5 - year and 10 - year secondary bonds exceeded 10bps, and the adjustment of other credit products was mostly within 5bps [15] Bond Market Pessimistic Expectations - A typical bond market adjustment process is: slow decline - sharp decline - slow decline - stabilization, corresponding to market expectations of doubt - wavering - panic selling - recovery. If public funds conduct large - scale continuous net selling and insurance allocation power significantly increases, it can be judged that the bond market has probably been fully adjusted [10][17] - During the recent bond market adjustment, from June 17th to July 22nd, the bond market declined slowly; from July 23rd to 29th, it declined sharply, with public funds selling large - scale long - term interest - rate bonds and insurance increasing positions; from July 30th to August 8th, the market recovered; from August 11th to 22nd, it adjusted again, with public funds selling long - term interest - rate bonds and insurance increasing positions. The adjustment may have basically ended [18] - The decline in the liability costs of banks and insurance companies has increased the attractiveness of the bond market to allocation investors after the adjustment. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.80% and the 30 - year Treasury yield approaches 2.1%, the adjustment momentum weakens [19] Bullish Main Lines - The most likely main line is that the stock market ends its unilateral upward trend, or the bond market moves independently of the stock market. Recently, the bond market has gradually shown independent movements. The stock - bond seesaw effect may not last. The current PMI data indicates that the fundamentals may still be under pressure, and the central bank has maintained ample liquidity, which is conducive to the bond market's independent movement [10][25][26] - Another possible main line is the central bank's potential interest - rate cut from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut may open up space for domestic interest - rate cuts, considering the current deep inversion of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, the "domestic - oriented" monetary policy, and the possible "combination - punch" approach of the central bank, this main line needs further clarification [10][28][29] - The third possible main line is the confirmation of the inflection point of the social financing growth rate. Social financing growth has been declining since August and is expected to continue until the end of the year. The social financing growth rate is predicted to reach a peak of about 9.0% from July to August and then gradually decline to about 8.2% by the end of the year. Even if special refinancing bonds are issued, their impact on social financing is only temporary [10][35][38]