银河期货每日早盘观察-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some regional pressures. The domestic soybean market has a high inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to be in a state of inventory accumulation, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. The palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, while the domestic vegetable oil has a relatively stable fundamental situation. The US corn may have a rebound space, and the domestic corn price is expected to decline. The pig price is expected to decline slightly, and the peanut market is expected to be stable with new - season supply increasing. The egg market has obvious supply - side pressure, and the apple market is expected to have a wide - range shock. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][6][10][18][24][30][34][44][52][61]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - Market Conditions: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1062.75 cents/bu, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.41% to 293.4 dollars/short ton [2]. - Relevant Information: As of August 24, US soybean crop good - excellent rate was 69%. As of August 21, the US soybean export inspection volume was 382,806 tons. The expected current - year soybean import volume increased by 120 tons to 1.5 million tons. As of August 22, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%. Soybean inventory increased by 0.31% to 6.8253 million tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 3.8% to 1.0533 million tons [2][3]. - Logic Analysis: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but Brazilian and Argentine soybeans have price or export pressure. The domestic soybean market has a high inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - Strategy Suggestion: For single - side trading, buy soybean and rapeseed meal at low prices for far - month contracts; for arbitrage, expand the MRM05 spread; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - Market Conditions: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, with the main contract down 0.05 (- 0.3%) to 16.39 cents/lb. London white sugar price rose in the previous trading day, with the main contract up 3.4 (0.7%) to 486.3 dollars/ton [8]. - Relevant Information: As of August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and the waiting sugar volume was 2.9169 million tons. Southern China's sugar quotes were stable with average transactions [9]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but the actual sugar production is lower than expected, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Domestically, the domestic sugar price is affected by the international price and is expected to follow the international trend [10]. - Position Suggestion: For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [11][12][13]. Oilseeds - Market Conditions: CBOT US soybean oil main price fell 0.94% to 54.84 cents/lb, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price fell 0.24% to 4482 ringgit/ton [15]. - Relevant Information: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9%. In July, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume increased by 13.13%. As of August 22, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 5.70%, and the soybean oil inventory increased by 3.79% [16][17]. - Logic Analysis: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, but the Indonesian price provides support. The domestic soybean oil pressure is released, and the vegetable oil inventory is decreasing [18]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, expand the P15 spread after a correction; for options, wait and see [19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market Conditions: CBOT corn futures fell, with the December main contract down 0.5% to 412.5 cents/bu [21]. - Relevant Information: As of August 23, Brazil's second - crop corn harvest rate was 94.8%. The US corn export inspection volume increased. The domestic corn price was weak [22][23]. - Logic Analysis: The US corn may rebound, and the domestic corn price is expected to decline [24]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, buy the December corn on dips and go long on the 01 corn at the bottom; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [25][27]. Pig - Relevant Information: The pig price fluctuated, with some regions falling. Piglet and sow prices changed, and the pork wholesale price was stable [29]. - Logic Analysis: The market supply pressure increased, and the price is expected to decline slightly [30]. - Strategy Suggestion: For single - side trading, buy far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [31]. Peanut - Relevant Information: The peanut price was weakly falling, the oil mill's demand was low, and the peanut oil price was strong. The peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [33]. - Logic Analysis: The peanut market is stable, but the new - season supply is expected to increase [34]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, short 11 and 01 peanuts on rallies, wait and see currently, and go long on 05 peanuts lightly; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [35][37][38]. Egg - Relevant Information: The egg price was stable, the in - production laying hen inventory increased, the egg sales volume decreased, and the inventory increased [40][42][43]. - Trading Logic: The supply - side pressure is obvious, and the price is expected to decline. Consider shorting on rallies [44]. - Trading Strategy: No specific strategies provided in the given text. Apple - Relevant Information: The apple cold - storage inventory decreased, the import and export volumes changed, the early - maturing apple price was polarized, and the storage profit decreased [47][51][52]. - Trading Logic: The current inventory is low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock [52]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, short on rallies; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market Conditions: ICE US cotton fell, with the main contract down 0.62 (0.91%) to 67.38 cents/lb [57]. - Relevant Information: As of August 24, the US cotton good - excellent rate was 54%. The 2025 cotton import tariff - rate quota for processing trade was 200,000 tons. As of mid - August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was at a low level [58]. - Trading Logic: The short - term tariff impact is weakened, the supply is tight, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to be slightly stronger [59][61]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [62].