Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company continues to reduce losses in Q2 2025, with strong sales growth in core products and an improving expense ratio, leading to stable overall performance and cash reserves [2][7]. - The global peak sales estimate for the key product, Tai Tasi Pu, has been raised to $3.1 billion based on excellent clinical data [2]. - The target price has been adjusted upwards to HKD 103, reflecting the company's performance in the first half of 2025 and anticipated contributions from new business development collaborations [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 1H25 increased by 47.6% year-on-year to RMB 1.09 billion, driven by strong sales of Tai Tasi Pu and Vidisizumab [7]. - The gross profit margin improved by 7.3 percentage points to 84.4%, with further optimization in expense ratios [7]. - The company has a robust cash reserve of RMB 1.48 billion and an additional bank credit line of RMB 2.7 billion [7]. Earnings Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 25% and 3% respectively, while the 2027 revenue forecast has been decreased by 14% [6]. - The gross profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 2.602 billion, reflecting a 38% increase from previous estimates [6]. - The net profit for 2027 is expected to rise by 87% to RMB 742 million, indicating a significant turnaround [6]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value at RMB 52.776 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 103 [8].
荣昌生物（09995）：2Q25产品销售强劲增长并减亏，核心资产海外价值可期，上调目标价