资产配置日报：又见十字星-20250826

Core Insights - The report indicates a temporary adjustment in equity markets, with major indices experiencing a "low open → recovery → decline" pattern, and the Shanghai Composite Index showing a daily candlestick pattern known as a doji [1] - The bond market continues its recovery trend, although the pace of interest rate decline is slowing down, with significant liquidity measures from the central bank [1][2] - There is a notable shift in institutional behavior, with domestic banks and brokerages becoming significant buyers of long-term bonds, while funds have started to increase their positions in medium to long-term government bonds [3] Market Performance - The equity market showed a slight decline, with the Wind All A Index down by 0.09% and trading volume decreasing by 467.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day [4] - The STAR 50 Index experienced a drop of 1.31%, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors regarding high valuations [5] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw a pullback, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.18% and 0.74%, respectively [6] Sector Analysis - The report highlights a clear trend of capital rotation, with sectors such as agriculture, beauty care, chemicals, media, and retail showing gains similar to or lower than the Wind All A Index since June 23 [6] - Conversely, technology sectors, which led the previous rally, are experiencing minor declines, indicating a pause rather than a reversal in investor sentiment [6] - The report notes that the "anti-involution" theme has shifted from broad gains to widespread declines in related commodities, with significant drops in aluminum oxide, coking coal, industrial silicon, and others [8][9] Policy Impact - The report discusses the implications of recent government policies, particularly the "artificial intelligence +" initiative, which could serve as a test for market sensitivity to positive news [7] - The clarity of the "anti-involution" policy has led to a decrease in aggressive bullish sentiment, as the market adjusts to a more nuanced understanding of the government's approach [9] Conclusion - Overall, the report suggests that the current market conditions reflect a cautious but not necessarily bearish outlook, with potential for recovery if supportive policies and investor sentiment align positively [7][9]