Ping An Securities·2025-08-27 00:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [1][4][7] Core Views - Qingdao Beer reported a stable revenue growth with a 1H25 revenue of 20.5 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.9 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [4][7] - The company is experiencing a release of cost benefits, with a gross margin of 43.7% in 1H25, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, and a beer cost of 2406 yuan per thousand liters, down 3.9% year-on-year [7][8] - The brand strategy focuses on enhancing the Qingdao main brand and developing the Laoshan beer as a national second brand, which is expected to improve competitiveness [7][8] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2024A: 32.14 billion yuan - 2025E: 32.87 billion yuan - 2026E: 33.99 billion yuan - 2027E: 34.89 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at -5.3%, 2.3%, 3.4%, and 2.7% respectively [6][10] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2024A: 4.35 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.66 billion yuan - 2026E: 4.94 billion yuan - 2027E: 5.18 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 1.8%, 7.3%, 5.9%, and 4.9% respectively [6][10] - Profitability Ratios: - Gross Margin: Expected to increase from 40.2% in 2024A to 42.4% in 2027E - Net Margin: Expected to increase from 13.5% in 2024A to 14.9% in 2027E [10] - Valuation Ratios: - P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 21.9 in 2024A to 18.4 in 2027E - P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 3.3 in 2024A to 2.5 in 2027E [10]