宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250827

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic situation of weak reality and strong expectation in the soybean sector remains unchanged, with high volatility in short - term soybean futures prices. The overall performance of soybean meal and palm oil futures is expected to be weakly volatile both in the short - term and medium - term [5][6]. - Fluctuations in international oil prices have a continuous spill - over effect on the oil market, especially on palm oil futures, which experience intensified high - level volatility. However, the positive trend in the palm oil industry chain remains, providing support for palm oil prices [8]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views: All are weakly volatile [5][7]. - Core Logic: Sino - US trade relations are crucial for US soybean export prospects. The import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and备货 demand also affect soybean meal prices. Market sentiment turning weak leads to synchronized declines in domestic and foreign soybean futures prices, increasing the short - term volatility of soybean meal futures [5][7]. Palm Oil (P) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views: All are weakly volatile [6][7]. - Core Logic: Fluctuations in international oil prices have a significant impact on palm oil futures. The positive trend in the palm oil industry chain, such as declining Indonesian inventories, strong Malaysian palm oil exports, and increased Indian imports, supports palm oil prices. However, short - term price fluctuations are intensified [8]. Soybean Oil (2601) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views: All are weakly volatile [7]. - Core Logic: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventories, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventories [7]. Palm (2601) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views: All are weakly volatile [7]. - Core Logic: Affected by its bio - diesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventories, and substitution demand [7].