Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Amidst factors such as the decline of the US dollar index and the dovish stance of the Fed Chair increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected. Although the optimistic sentiment in the equity market has faded, the overall prices of non - ferrous metals are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend. However, different metals have their own supply - demand characteristics, which will also have an impact on their price trends [1][3]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price Performance: LME copper rose 0.38% to $9,846/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract reached 79,420 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 975 to 155,000 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 23,000 tons. - Market Situation: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight. Although the US copper tariff has led to an increase in copper supply outside the US, the overall supply surplus is expected to be small, and copper prices may fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 78,800 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,750 - 9,950/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price Performance: LME aluminum rose 0.63% to $2,638/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 20,880 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 0.4 to 594,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 56,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 464,000 tons. - Market Situation: With the Fed's dovish signal and the approaching peak season, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20,750 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,610 - 2,660/ton [3]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Performance: The AD2511 contract fell 0.32% to 20,265 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.04 to 32,400 tons. - Market Situation: As the downstream moves from the off - season to the peak season, costs are strongly supportive, and market activity is increasing. However, the large difference between futures and spot prices will put pressure on the nearby contracts [5]. Lead - Price Performance: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.38% to 16,924 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 58,200 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 63,200 tons. - Market Situation: The supply side shows marginal growth, and the downstream battery enterprise's operating rate has recovered rapidly. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but in the medium term, there is still a risk of decline [7]. Zinc - Price Performance: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.52% to 22,272 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 36,400 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 132,900 tons. - Market Situation: The zinc mine inventory is rising, and the refined zinc import is decreasing. Although the medium - term industry surplus situation remains unchanged, the dovish stance of the Fed strengthens the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [9][10]. Tin - Price Performance: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269,760 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 120 to 7,152 tons. - Market Situation: The supply of tin is low, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for domestic tin prices is 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin prices is $31,000 - 34,000/ton [11]. Nickel - Price Performance: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - Market Situation: The macro - environment is positive, but the refined nickel supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the stainless steel demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract this week is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [12][13]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Performance: The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index was 79,332 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. - Market Situation: The supply of lithium mica has decreased, and the bottom support during the peak season has increased. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 77,000 - 82,500 yuan/ton [15]. Alumina - Price Performance: On August 26, the alumina index fell 3.47% to 3,063 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts on Tuesday were 84,600 tons, an increase of 0.15 from the previous day. - Market Situation: After a significant decline in the short - term alumina futures price, the downside space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 3,100 - 3,500 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - Price Performance: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. - Inventory: The futures inventory was 101,925 tons, a decrease of 16,715 from the previous day, and the social inventory increased by 1.19% to 1,091,700 tons. - Market Situation: The short - term downstream demand is insufficient, but with the approaching of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase [19].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250827
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-27 01:10