国新国证期货早报-20250827

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 26, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to 3868.38, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26% to 12473.17, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.75% to 2742.13. The trading volume of the two markets was 2679 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 462.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Indexes: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4452.59, down 16.63 [2]. - Futures: The weighted index of coke closed at 1679.6, down 40.8; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1155.5 yuan, down 37.7 [3][4]. 2. Core Views on Different Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The 7 - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented this week, and the coking profit has improved. However, some coke enterprises may face short - term production restrictions due to the military parade, and there is a regional shortage of coke resources. The demand for coke is currently high but may decline during the military parade [5]. - Coking coal: More mines have resumed production this week, and the import volume of Mongolian coal is relatively high. Although the theoretical import profit of sea - borne coal is narrowing, the short - term supply is still abundant [5]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Asian high rainfall is beneficial to sugarcane growth, which suppresses the price of US sugar. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined significantly on August 26 due to the fall of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices [5]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to the decline of rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and heavy rainfall in Thailand, but falling in the afternoon due to the poor financial reports of German car companies and concerns about future rubber demand [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated on August 26, with good crop growth conditions. In the domestic market, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The price of soybean meal is in a state of shock, and the future trend depends on Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [9]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On August 26, the LH2511 contract closed down 0.36%. The supply of suitable pigs is sufficient, and the terminal consumption may improve with the approaching of the school season and holidays, but the actual consumption recovery is restricted by many factors. The price of live pigs may fluctuate widely [9]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On August 26, palm oil futures continued to fluctuate in a high - level range. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last month. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased week - on - week [10]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Fed Chairman Powell's dovish statement has increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to copper prices. The supply of refined copper in China may increase slightly, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the peak season [10]. 2.8 Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14085 yuan/ton on the night of August 26, and the cotton inventory decreased by 127 lots [11]. 2.9 Logs - The futures price of logs was affected by the increase of foreign quotes. The spot trading was weak, and attention should be paid to the price, import data, inventory changes and macro - expectations in the peak season [12]. 2.10 Steel - On August 26, the rb2510 contract closed at 3113 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3367 yuan/ton. The weak reality still restricts the rebound of steel prices, but there are still expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" [12]. 2.11 Alumina - The supply of alumina is increasing, while the growth of downstream electrolytic aluminum capacity is slowing down, resulting in a prominent supply - demand contradiction and downward pressure on prices [12]. 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts and real - estate policies. The inventory has increased, and the future price depends on consumption performance [13].