甲醇日评：回归偏弱基本面-20250827

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are still high and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair. In terms of drivers, the return of inland and imported supplies exerts downward pressure on methanol prices, and with high raw material inventories of downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory accumulation is likely, so the upward driving force for methanol is weak [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2395 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.20%); MA05 at 2382 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.83%); MA09 at 2272 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.56%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: Prices in most regions decreased, except for Hubei which increased by 15 yuan/ton (0.65%). For example, the price in Taicang was 2275 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton (-0.98%) [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 6.5 yuan/ton [1] - Coal Spot Prices: Most coal prices declined, such as Ordos Q5500 at 495 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-1.00%) [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] b) Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 62.6 yuan/ton (16.75%), while natural - gas - based methanol profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-2.21%) [1] - Methanol Downstream Profits: Profits of most downstream products changed. For example, the profit of Northwest MTO increased by 51.4 yuan/ton (78.35%), while the profit of formaldehyde decreased by 24 yuan/ton (-8.81%) [1] c) Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated and declined, opening at 2425 yuan/ton, closing at 2395 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 373,944 lots, and open interest was 710,322, with decreasing volume and increasing positions [1] - Foreign Information: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some plants increased their loads. The operating rate of methanol plants in this country reached around 79%, and daily output continued to rise [1] d) Trading Strategy - After the previous trading day's decline, with the fall of coking coal, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental situation. Considering valuation and driving factors, the upward driving force for methanol is not strong [1]