Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: The fundamentals have no new drivers, waiting for a pullback [2][4] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, with a sideways consolidation [2][4] - Soybean meal: CBOT soybeans are strong while DCE soybean meal is weak. Beware of a rebound after an over - decline [2][12] - Soybean: Affected by the atmosphere of the soybean market, it is weak in the short term [2][12] - Corn: It is moving sideways [2][15] - Sugar: Maintain the thinking of range consolidation [2][19] - Cotton: Pay attention to the situation of new crops and the influence of external market sentiment [2][23] - Eggs: The sentiment for the distant end is weak [2][29] - Hogs: The spot performance is below expectations. Short at high prices [2][31] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][36] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton (-0.67%), and night - session was 9,488 yuan/ton (+0.68%); soybean oil's daily - session was 8,536 yuan/ton (0.00%), and night - session was 8,402 yuan/ton (-1.57%) [4] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,470 yuan/ton (-150); first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,850 yuan/ton (+130) [4] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) was 46 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 314 yuan/ton [4] Macro and Industry News - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% MoM, oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% MoM, and production decreased by 1.21% MoM [5] - Malaysia is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax [7] - The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from a 19% tariff [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3974 yuan/ton (-0.60%), and night - session was 3961 yuan/ton (-0.68%); DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session was 3081 yuan/ton (-0.93%), and night - session was 3047 yuan/ton (-1.61%) [12] - Spot: Shandong's soybean meal (43%) was 3080 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 30 to flat compared to the previous day [12] - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 7.95 million tons/day, and the inventory was 98.55 million tons/week [12] Macro and Industry News - On August 26, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher as Chinese trade representatives were to visit the US, but the expected bumper harvest of US soybeans limited the upside [14] Trend Intensity - Soybean meal trend intensity: 0; soybean trend intensity: 0 [14] Corn Fundamental Tracking - Futures: C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,210 yuan/ton (-0.09%), and night - session was 2,210 yuan/ton (0.00%); C2511's daily - session was 2,158 yuan/ton (-0.28%), and night - session was 2,157 yuan/ton (-0.05%) [16] - Spot: Jinzhou's closing price was 2,250 yuan/ton (0); Guangdong Shekou was 2,360 yuan/ton (0) [16] Macro and Industry News - Northern corn collection prices were stable, while Guangdong Shekou's prices increased by 10 yuan/ton; Northeast corn prices were weak, and North China's prices declined [17] Trend Intensity - Corn trend intensity: 0 [18] Sugar Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The main contract price was 5632 yuan/ton (-56) [19] - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5980 yuan/ton (0) [19] Macro and Industry News - Brazil's production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased; China's July sugar imports were 740,000 tons (+320,000 tons) [19] Trend Intensity - Sugar trend intensity: 0 [22] Cotton Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton (-0.14%), and night - session was 14085 yuan/ton (-0.11%); ICE cotton 12 was 66.67 cents/lb (-1.05%) [23] - Spot: Northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,342 yuan/ton (-20); Southern Xinjiang's was 15,033 yuan/ton (-20) [23] Macro and Industry News - Cotton spot trading was average, and the basis was stable; the cotton yarn market was okay, but the fabric market improved slightly [24] Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity: 0 [27] Eggs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Egg 2509's closing price was 2,916 yuan/500 kg (-1.32%); Egg 2601 was 3,376 yuan/500 kg (-0.53%) [29] - Spot: Liaoning's spot price was 3.20 yuan/jin; Hebei's was 2.69 yuan/jin [29] Trend Intensity - Egg trend intensity: 0 [29] Hogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Hog 2509's closing price was 13,665 yuan/ton (-130); Hog 2511 was 13,860 yuan/ton (-50); Hog 2601 was 14,200 yuan/ton (-40) [32] - Spot: Henan's spot price was 13,730 yuan/ton (-50); Sichuan's was 13,600 yuan/ton (+50); Guangdong's was 14,940 yuan/ton (-200) [32] Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and retail farmers were forced to hold back pigs. Demand growth was limited. Short the November contract at high prices; the September contract still had a premium over the warehouse - receipt cost [34] Trend Intensity - Hog trend intensity: -1 [33] Peanuts Fundamental Tracking - Futures: PK510's closing price was 8,072 yuan/ton (+1.20%); PK511 was 7,834 yuan/ton (+0.72%) [36] - Spot: Liaoning's 308 common peanuts were 8,000 yuan/ton (0); Henan's Baisha common peanuts were 8,500 yuan/ton (0) [36] Spot Market Focus - In Henan, the supply was limited due to rain, and inquiries increased; new peanuts in Jilin were growing well and were expected to be listed in mid - to late September [37] Trend Intensity - Peanut trend intensity: 0 [38]
棕榈油:基本面暂无新驱动,等待回调,豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,震荡整理,豆粕:美豆偏强、连粕偏弱,谨防超跌反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-27 01:52