Workflow
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250827
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-27 01:50

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for TL2509 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, with an overall view of shock due to the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is shock - weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The overall situation is that treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a bottom - shock operation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - weak, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose slightly. Due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited, so treasury bond futures rebounded from the bottom. However, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is expected to be insufficient in the short term. From the policy perspective, monetary policy is mainly structurally loose, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting scientific and technological innovation - related fields, and the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut has decreased. From the perspective of capital preference, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising recently, and the profit - making effect has attracted funds into the stock market, reducing the demand for funds to buy treasury bonds. In general, treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - shock operation in the short term [5].