有色金属日报-20250827

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various non - ferrous metals are complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each metal. The report provides specific analysis and investment suggestions for each metal based on supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and technical analysis [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts gave back the previous day's gains, with spot copper at 79,585 yuan. The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list. The integer - level resistance of Shanghai copper is strong, and high - position short positions should be held [2] Aluminum - Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The spot in East China fell to par. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons, and that of aluminum rods by 9,000 tons. The downstream start - up seasonally recovered. In the short - term, Shanghai aluminum will maintain a volatile trend, with resistance in the 20,800 - 21,000 yuan area. From late August to September, the expectation of smelter production cuts and overhauls increases, and there is still a regional supply shortage. The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are improving, but the rebound space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3][6] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with increasing industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts. Supply surplus is emerging. The spot in the north has fallen below 3,200 yuan. Alumina is in a weak - volatile state, with support at 3,000 yuan. If the futures - spot discount continues to widen, short - term long positions can be considered [3] Zinc - The increase in global mine supply is being realized, and TC continues to rise. Domestic smelters are highly motivated to increase production. The short - position space for mine profits in the futures market still exists. The spot is at a discount to the futures. Zinc inventory is becoming more visible. Shanghai zinc is under downward pressure. Wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly, with dull market trading. Traders are reluctant to lower prices. The inventory of pure nickel decreased to 41,000 tons, and that of nickel - iron remained at 33,000 tons. The stainless - steel inventory is at 934,000 tons. Technically, nickel prices still have the intention to rebound, but the fundamentals are weak. Look for short - selling positions [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions slightly and closed below 270,000 yuan. Spot tin rose to 270,000 yuan. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term, and long positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and market trading shrank. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons. The mid - stream production decreased by 5% week - on - week. Take a bullish view with risk control [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased positions and declined. The market sentiment was affected by the weakening of coking coal prices. The supply in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan increased this month, and the demand also followed up. The short - term sentiment fluctuations make the futures price weak, and the support at 8,300 yuan/ton should be observed [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to fluctuate. After last week's industry meeting, the spot price of N - type re - feeding materials rose to 49,000 yuan/ton. The inventory pressure of polysilicon is greater than that of silicon wafers. It is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short term, and the strategy of buying on dips can be continued [11]