国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250827

Report Overview - Date: August 27, 2025 [1][4][7][11][15][17][20] - Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market trends of various commodities are mainly characterized by wide - range oscillations or repeated fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore and logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly, while rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Trend: Oscillate repeatedly [2][6] - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price was 776.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 1.33%. The previous day's position was 452,852 lots, down 11,978 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - News: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [5] - Trend Intensity: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Trend: Market sentiment is changeable, with wide - range oscillations [2][8] - Fundamentals: For RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,113 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.99%. For HC2510, it was 3,367 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.71%. Trading volume and positions decreased. Spot prices generally declined, and basis and spread values changed [8] - News: In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products increased compared to the previous period. Steel inventories increased. Other macro - related data were also reported [8][10] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Trend: Wide - range oscillations [2][11] - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, while those of silicomanganese were stable. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [11] - News: Iron alloy price information from different regions and steel mills' procurement prices were reported [12] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Trend: Wide - range oscillations [2][15] - Fundamentals: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Trading volume and positions increased. Spot prices of some coking coals changed, and coke prices were stable. Basis and spread values changed significantly [15] - News: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [15] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - Trend: Oscillate repeatedly [2][17] - Fundamentals: Futures closing prices of different contracts showed slight changes, with varying trading volumes and positions. Spot prices of most log varieties were stable, and some basis and spread values changed [18] - News: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [20] - Trend Intensity: 0 [20]