国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250827

Report Overview - Date: August 27, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: JH meeting Powell signaled dovish stance [2] - Silver: Approaching previous high [2] - Copper: Decline in both domestic and overseas inventories, price remains firm [2] - Zinc: Trading within a range [2] - Lead: Decline in inventory supports price [2] - Tin: Trading within a range [2] - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Alumina: Center of price moving down [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Narrow - range oscillating [2] - Stainless Steel: Short - term low - level oscillation [2] Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - Price and Performance: Comex gold 2510 rose 1.00% to 3417.20, London gold spot rose 0.95% to 3369.82; Comex silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390, London silver spot rose 1.85% to 38.801 [5] - Inventory: SPDR gold ETF held 956.77 tons, SLV silver ETF held 15,288.82 tons (previous day) [5] - Trend Intensity: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [8] Copper - Price and Performance: Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,190, down 0.63%, night - session price rose 0.29% to 79420; LME copper 3M electronic disk rose 0.38% to 9,847 [10] - Inventory: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 830 tons to 22,917 tons, LME copper inventory decreased by 975 tons to 155,000 tons [10] - Trend Intensity: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [12] Zinc - Price and Performance: Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22270, down 0.56%; LME zinc 3M electronic disk rose 1.39% to 2805.5 [13] - Inventory: Shanghai zinc futures inventory increased by 1172 tons to 36366 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2550 tons to 65525 tons [13] - Trend Intensity: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [15] Lead - Price and Performance: Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16930, up 0.50%; LME lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.12% to 1992 [16] - Inventory: Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 747 tons to 58201 tons, LME lead inventory decreased by 1500 tons to 271550 tons [16] - Trend Intensity: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [16] Tin - Price and Performance: Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,930, down 0.21%; LME tin 3M electronic disk rose 1.11% to 33,845 [19] - Inventory: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 205 tons to 7,053 tons, LME tin inventory increased by 45 tons to 1,785 tons [19] - Trend Intensity: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [24] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Performance: Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20715, down 55; Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 3069, up 226; cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20265, down 65 [25] - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 60.30 million tons, unchanged [25] - Trend Intensity: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 0, alumina - 1, and cast aluminum alloy 0 [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Performance: Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,370, up 60; stainless steel main contract closed at 12,840, down 40 [28] - Industry News: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, including production suspensions and regulatory actions [28][29][30] - Trend Intensity: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [33]