国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers insights into multiple energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. It analyzes the supply - demand balance, price trends, and market conditions of each commodity, providing investment suggestions such as positive spreads, short - term or mid - term trading strategies, and warnings about potential risks [2][8][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply - demand is in tight balance, with a short - term upward trend. Positive spreads are recommended, and there are suggestions like long PTA and short PX (11 contract). The price of PX increased on the 26th, and there are uncertainties in the Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan [4][6][8] - PTA: With the new Sanfangxiang PTA device put into production and the Dushan Energy device under maintenance, positive spreads are recommended. The demand is in a seasonal improvement phase [4][8][9] - MEG: The short - term trend is upward, and 9 - 1 positive spreads are recommended. However, there is significant pressure above 4600. Import arrivals are low, and port inventories are decreasing [4][9] 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is expected to fluctuate. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises increased. The overall macro - sentiment and policy expectations have an impact on the market [10][11][13] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals are neutral, and it follows the macro - market. In the short - term, it is strong, and in the mid - term, it fluctuates within a range. The overall macro - sentiment and policy expectations support the price [14][16] 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic asphalt production in September is expected to increase, and the factory and social inventories have different trends [17][31] 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE is in a range - bound state. The demand is improving, mainly due to the peak - season stocking of the agricultural film industry. The supply pressure may be alleviated in the short - term, and the inventory is relatively low [34][35] 3.6 PP - PP is in a mid - term oscillating market. The short - term demand has improved, and the cost has rebounded. However, the supply pressure will increase in the future [38][39] 3.7 Caustic Soda - The near - month warehouse receipts and exports suppress the caustic soda market. The domestic demand is stable, but the short - term pressure from warehouse receipts and weak exports needs attention [42][43] 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is expected to fluctuate. The market is divided, with high port inventories and weak demand suppressing the price. Attention should be paid to inventory data and downstream demand [46][47] 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market price is under pressure, and the high - inventory pressure needs to be digested [50][51] 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is in a short - term weak and mid - term oscillating pattern. The spot price has decreased, and the futures price has declined. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of some devices and the impact of freight [53][55] 3.11 Urea - Urea is in a short - term weak state. After the export policy is determined, the market speculation weakens. In the mid - term, the price may fluctuate due to macro - sentiment and policy expectations [59][62] 3.12 Styrene - Styrene is bearish in the mid - term. The downstream raw material inventory is at a medium - high level, and the short - term market is oscillating [63][64] 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The market is expected to be weakly stable and oscillating, with low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream enterprises [65] 3.14 LPG and Propylene - LPG: The cost of crude oil is weakening. There are changes in futures prices, trading volumes, and spreads. Attention should be paid to the PDH and MTBE operating rates [67] - Propylene: Supply - demand is in tight balance, and it oscillates in the short - term [67] 3.15 PVC - PVC still faces pressure. The supply is at a high level, the domestic demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The export price is under competitive pressure [75] 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: New warehouse receipts have emerged, and the market has turned bearish [78] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It has reversed and declined, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has temporarily stabilized [78] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may continue to have weak oscillations. The futures prices have declined, and the freight rates of relevant routes have decreased [80]