宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Views of the Report - Gold: In the short - term, it's expected to oscillate; in the medium - term, also oscillate; and on the day, it's expected to be weakly oscillating. The suggested approach is to wait and see. The core logic is that the growing expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable for the gold price, but there is significant technical pressure at the upper limit of the oscillation range [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term, it's expected to rise; in the medium - term, oscillate; and on the day, it's expected to be strongly oscillating. The suggested approach is to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the overseas macro situation is warming up, China is approaching the peak season, and industrial support is strengthening [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price Trend: After Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price has been on an upward trend, and New York gold is approaching the $3450 mark, which is the upper limit of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3]. - Market Expectation: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts may have been reflected in the price, and currently, the market is more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year [3]. - Demand Change: The recovery of market risk appetite has led to a continuous strong performance in the equity market, reducing the safe - haven demand for gold [3]. - Technical Pressure: Without other favorable factors, it's expected that the gold price will face significant technical pressure at the upper limit of the oscillation range [3]. Copper - Price and Position Change: The copper price stabilized and rebounded last night, and the open interest increased accordingly [5]. - Macro Factors: Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting increased market risk appetite, which is favorable for the copper price; the rebound of the US dollar index and the cooling of the domestic commodity market are negative factors for the copper price [5]. - Industrial Factors: As China is approaching the peak season, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and industrial support is gradually strengthening, so the copper price is expected to maintain a strong performance [5].