铝产业链日评：国内铝土矿8月供需预期偏松，国内电解铝社会库存量环比增加-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the rising prices of alumina, domestic and imported bauxite push up production costs. The decline in domestic alumina operating capacity cannot change the loose supply - demand expectation, suggesting limited upside for alumina prices. Investors are advised to wait and watch, focusing on the support level around 2800 - 3000 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the expected shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season, and the low domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory may lead to a strong upward trend in electrolytic aluminum prices. Investors are recommended to go long on the main contract with a light position on dips, paying attention to the support level around 20200 - 20400 and the resistance level around 21000 - 21500. For LME aluminum, focus on the support level around 2300 - 2500 and the resistance level around 2700 - 2800 [2]. - For aluminum alloy, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the tight supply of scrap aluminum leading to near - loss in recycled aluminum alloy production may cause aluminum alloy prices to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to go long on the main contract with a light position on dips or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy on rallies, focusing on the support level around 19800 - 20000 and the resistance level around 20300 - 20500 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Aluminum Futures in Shanghai: On August 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 20715 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 103054 lots, a decrease of 43106 lots, and the open interest was 251409 lots, an increase of 3066 lots. The inventory was 56274 tons, a decrease of 396 tons. The basis of Shanghai aluminum was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2]. - Alumina Futures: The trading volume was 421870 lots, a decrease of 33265 lots, and the inventory was 84628 tons, an increase of 1496 tons. The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of alumina was - 1, an increase of 5 [2]. - LME Aluminum: The closing price of the 3 - month LME aluminum futures (electronic trading) was 9837, up 40.5 from the previous day. The price difference between the 3 - 15 - month contracts of LME aluminum futures was 0, an increase of 158.98. The ratio of Shanghai - LME aluminum prices was 7.8511, a decrease of 0.021 [2]. Industry News - An aluminum production capacity green and low - carbon transformation project is expected to have a construction period of about 10 months. After completion, the company's annual electrolytic aluminum output is expected to reach about 1.4 million tons [2]. - On August 22, Anhui Weiyu Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. signed a contract with the People's Government of Shiliang Town, Tianchang City, Chuzhou City for a "200,000 - ton annual aluminum - based new material and energy storage equipment project" with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan [2]. - Henan Siweite Welding and Repair Co., Ltd. is building a project to reconstruct an annual output of 1200 tons of aluminum wire with a total investment of 6 million yuan, currently in the publicity stage of environmental impact report approval [2]. - The energy - saving report of the Wenshan Green and Low - Carbon Casting Project of Zhongyan (Yunnan) Green Advanced Aluminum - based Materials Co., Ltd. was approved. The project covers an area of about 104 mu with an annual output of 200,000 tons of deformed aluminum and aluminum alloy cast - rolled strips [2]. - Asia - Pacific Technology's wholly - owned subsidiary, Anxinda, plans to invest 210 million yuan in a "Automobile Lightweight Aluminum Material Production Line Transformation Project". After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of aluminum alloy melting and processing [2]. Market Analysis - In the alumina market, U.S. companies are actively buying scrap aluminum due to tariff exemptions, leading to fierce competition in overseas scrap aluminum procurement. Geopolitical conflicts and illegal smuggling in Southeast Asia may cause a continuous decline in scrap aluminum exports to China until the end of 2025 or early 2026. The domestic price difference of precision aluminum is positive and decreasing month - on - month, which may lead to a decrease (increase) in China's scrap aluminum production (import) in August [2]. - In the electrolytic aluminum market, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a low level, and the price trend is expected to be strong [2]. - In the aluminum alloy market, the tight supply of scrap aluminum makes the production of recycled aluminum alloy close to a loss, and the price trend is expected to be cautiously strong [2].